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Rankings
#68 of 100 in Division 2
#19 of 25 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #65 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D2 (-610 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 21-17 A #290 Marion Harding (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 106
08/28 L 34-14 H #313 Newark (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 75
09/04 W 12-0 H #372 Highland (Marengo) (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 115
09/11 A #148 Johnstown (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 26 (6%)
09/18 H #442 Newark Catholic (3-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 16 (84%)
09/25 A #84 Granville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/02 H #91 Licking Valley (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/09 A #340 Zanesville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/16 A #384 Licking Heights (0-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/23 H #244 Watkins Memorial (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.00 ( 4.00-26.50) 30% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Hamilton Township (2-1) 10%
Lose: 6.10 ( 0.90-22.10) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Ashland (3-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 15.75 (11.10-19.85) 76% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Hamilton Township (2-1) 11%
(13%) 5W: 11.65 ( 8.80-16.65) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Ashland (3-0) 12%
(23%) 4W: 8.45 ( 5.45-14.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(29%) 3W: 5.95 ( 3.15-11.30) out, proj. out
(23%) 2W: 4.30 ( 1.55- 7.50) out, proj. out
( 8%) 1W: 1.85 ( 0.90- 3.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLWWWW: 16.30 (13.85-19.70) 84% in, 11% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Hamilton Township (2-1) 13%
( 9%) LWLLWWW: 11.35 ( 8.80-14.75) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Green (Uniontown) (2-1) 16%
( 6%) LWLLLWW: 8.35 ( 5.45-11.95) out
(11%) LWLLWWL: 8.10 ( 5.55-11.70) out
( 7%) LWLLWLL: 6.60 ( 4.75- 9.30) out
(14%) LWLLLWL: 5.40 ( 3.15- 8.50) out
(16%) LWLLLLL: 4.40 ( 2.50- 7.40) out
( 8%) LLLLLLL: 1.85 ( 0.90- 3.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 102.2, #356, D2 #68), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 101.8, #350, D2 #68), 7% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 107.5, #301, D2 #61), 24% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 109.4, #287, D2 #60), 28% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 114.0