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Rankings
#66 of 104 in Division 2
#17 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #74 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #79 in D2 (-438 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-14 H #355 Marion Harding (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 90
08/29 W 24-7 A #278 Newark (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 34 (4%), perf. rating 139
09/05 L 41-34 A #293 Delaware Hayes (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 101
09/12 W 35-34 H #219 Johnstown (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 119
09/19 A #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/26 H #569 Zanesville (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/03 A #233 Watkins Memorial (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/10 H #397 Licking Heights (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/17 A #99 Licking Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/24 H #165 Granville (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
19% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.05 ( 8.35-25.90) 43% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
Lose: 9.55 ( 5.10-22.55) 8% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Ashland (4-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 18.90 (16.75-22.55) 99% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 13%
(16%) 6W: 15.30 (12.45-20.55) 68% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
(28%) 5W: 12.25 ( 9.05-17.85) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Ashland (4-0) 17%
(37%) 4W: 9.40 ( 6.75-14.40) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(13%) 3W: 7.60 ( 5.10-11.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWLW: 18.85 (16.75-20.75) 99% in, 57% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 13%
( 3%) LWWWLW: 16.15 (14.20-17.95) 87% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Northland (2-2) 14%
( 7%) WWWWLL: 14.55 (12.45-16.95) 53% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 12%
( 5%) LWLWLW: 13.25 (10.75-15.70) 16% in, proj. out (#10-out), Ashland (4-0) 19%
(11%) WWLWLL: 12.05 ( 9.05-14.75) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Ashland (4-0) 17%
(10%) LWWWLL: 11.85 ( 9.85-14.05) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Ashland (4-0) 18%
(32%) LWLWLL: 9.10 ( 6.75-12.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Ashland (4-0) 33%
(12%) LWLLLL: 7.45 ( 5.10- 9.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 109.5, #297, D2 #66), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 108.6, #295, D2 #65), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 110.5, #290, D2 #65), 30% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 91.4, #430, D2 #82), 9% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 94.9, #404, D2 #81), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 97.7