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Rankings
#50 of 106 in Division 5
#12 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #2 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D5 (-237 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 16-13 H #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 23 (85%), perf. rating 103
08/29 L 14-7 A #149 Hopewell-Loudon (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 124
09/05 L 36-7 A #328 Whitehall-Yearling (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 64
09/12 L 21-14 A #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 91
09/19 H #152 Clear Fork (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/26 A #140 Ontario (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/03 H #52 Galion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/10 H #355 Marion Harding (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 45 (1%)
10/24 H #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.57 ( 4.35-15.90) 35% in, 4% home, proj. out (#5-out), Miami East (3-1) 19%
Lose: 3.95 ( 1.25-14.85) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 9.65 ( 7.20-13.60) 58% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 14%
(25%) 3W: 5.95 ( 4.00-11.20) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(38%) 2W: 4.25 ( 2.45- 8.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(34%) 1W: 2.25 ( 1.25- 4.15) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLWLW: 9.50 ( 7.20-12.10) 56% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 19%
( 1%) LWLWLW: 8.75 ( 7.20-11.70) 39% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 13%
(22%) LLLWLW: 5.55 ( 4.00- 8.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami East (3-1) 67%
(23%) LLLLLW: 4.30 ( 2.80- 6.70) out
(13%) LLLWLL: 3.95 ( 2.45- 6.35) out
(34%) LLLLLL: 2.25 ( 1.25- 4.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 95.7, #398, D5 #50), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 100.8, #369, D5 #45), 11% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 108.2, #305, D5 #34), 40% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 100.7, #353, D5 #45), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 107.1, #297, D5 #33), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 105.2