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Rankings
#2 of 102 in Division 4
#1 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #16 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D4 (+347 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 54-0 H #331 Madison (Mansfield) (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 42 (97%), perf. rating 165
08/28 W 48-6 A #316 Lexington (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 171
09/04 W 27-7 H #104 Bellevue (4-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 28 (94%), perf. rating 166
09/11 W 31-14 A #252 Galion (2-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 34 (98%), perf. rating 142
09/18 W 47-6 A #329 Highland (Marengo) (2-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 168
09/25 W 54-0 H #510 River Valley (Caled.) (0-6) D4 R14, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 138
10/02 A #132 Clear Fork (5-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/09 H #91 Ontario (6-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/16 A #371 Pleasant (2-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/23 H #333 Marion Harding (4-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
29.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and home, likely bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 29.00 (19.95-31.75) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
Lose: 24.25 (14.70-26.40) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 87%
Based on eventual number of wins
(81%) 10W: 29.05 (26.85-31.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(17%) 9W: 24.25 (22.20-28.80) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) 8W: 19.60 (17.30-25.60) 100% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 50%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(81%) WWWW: 29.05 (26.85-31.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 6%) LWWW: 24.40 (22.60-26.40) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 9%) WLWW: 23.90 (22.20-25.90) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 2%) LLWW: 19.20 (17.30-21.15) 100% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#6), bye 40%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (6-0, 157.9, #39, D4 #2), appears locked in and home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 5 (5-0, 161.1, #34, D4 #2), appears locked in and home, 98% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 4 (4-0, 161.2, #31, D4 #2), appears locked in and likely home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 170.3, #20, D4 #1), appears locked in and home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 169.0, #20, D4 #1), appears locked in and likely home, 98% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 161.2, #34, D4 #2), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 89% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 0 (0-0, 160.8, #27, D4 #1), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 85% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 165.3