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Rankings
#12 of 101 in Division 4
#5 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #18 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #7 in D4 (+395 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-14 A #179 Granville (1-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 7 (37%), perf. rating 148
08/28 W 38-12 A #447 Zanesville (1-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 36 (96%), perf. rating 128
09/04 H #231 Lexington (0-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 18 (84%)
09/11 A #74 Ontario (2-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 12 (24%)
09/18 H #415 Pleasant (1-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/25 A #301 Marion Harding (1-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/02 H #20 Shelby (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/09 A #348 Highland (Marengo) (1-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/16 H #440 River Valley (Caled.) (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/23 H #168 Galion (1-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
5.66 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 48% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.61 ( 2.64- 7.98) 99% in, 97% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 54%
Lose: 4.22 ( 1.97- 6.88) 95% in, 70% home, 12% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 10W: 7.52 ( 7.22- 7.98) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(18%) 9W: 6.58 ( 6.11- 7.21) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(38%) 8W: 5.66 ( 5.14- 6.31) 100% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 63%
(26%) 7W: 4.90 ( 4.39- 5.49) 100% in, 99% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 15%
(11%) 6W: 4.16 ( 3.74- 4.72) 100% in, 77% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Napoleon (0-2) 12%
( 4%) 5W: 3.44 ( 3.08- 3.94) 95% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Buckeye (0-2) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWWW: 7.52 ( 7.21- 7.97) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(16%) WWWWLWWW: 6.58 ( 6.11- 7.21) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 3%) WWWWLWWL: 5.84 ( 5.55- 6.31) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 72%
(32%) WLWWLWWW: 5.64 ( 5.14- 6.12) 100% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 62%
(14%) WLWWLWWL: 4.91 ( 4.47- 5.36) 100% in, 99% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 16%
( 4%) LLWWLWWW: 4.87 ( 4.50- 5.16) 100% in, 99% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 15%
( 3%) WLWLLWWW: 4.77 ( 4.39- 5.14) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Otsego (2-0) 12%
( 3%) WLWLLWWL: 4.06 ( 3.77- 4.44) 100% in, 77% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Firelands (1-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 134.8, #121, D4 #12), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 5-5), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 132.9, #135, D4 #12), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 29% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 123.4, #188, D4 #19), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 125.1