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Rankings
#17 of 105 in Division 4
#5 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #22 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D4 (+383 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 17-14 H #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 143
08/29 W 39-0 H #569 Zanesville (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 125
09/05 L 31-28 A #133 Lexington (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 132
09/12 W 14-10 H #140 Ontario (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 5 (38%), perf. rating 137
09/19 A #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/26 H #355 Marion Harding (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/03 A #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/10 H #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/17 A #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #52 Galion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.45 ( 8.40-26.30) 99% in, 80% home, 15% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 15%
Lose: 13.55 ( 8.90-20.05) 98% in, 40% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Perkins (1-3) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(14%) 8W: 20.05 (17.65-23.55) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(72%) 7W: 15.45 (13.35-20.05) 100% in, 83% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Cloverleaf (3-1) 14%
(12%) 6W: 13.45 (10.80-17.20) 99% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Benjamin Logan (2-2) 14%
( 2%) 5W: 11.52 ( 9.50-13.90) 89% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWL: 20.55 (19.10-22.20) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 82%
(11%) WWLWWW: 20.00 (17.65-22.15) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 90%
(71%) WWLWWL: 15.40 (13.35-18.00) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Cloverleaf (3-1) 14%
( 2%) LWLWWL: 13.95 (12.40-15.55) 100% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Cloverleaf (3-1) 17%
( 4%) WWLWLL: 13.40 (10.80-15.55) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 14%
( 4%) WLLWWL: 13.25 (11.55-15.45) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Benjamin Logan (2-2) 15%
( 2%) WWLLWL: 13.25 (10.85-15.95) 99% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Benjamin Logan (2-2) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 131.8, #152, D4 #17), likely in, 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 129.7, #161, D4 #19), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (likely needs 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 129.6, #159, D4 #20), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 131.7, #139, D4 #16), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 68% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 115.8, #237, D4 #34), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 120.5