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Rankings
#21 of 72 in Division 1
#4 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #35 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #26 in D1 (+35 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 38-7 A #401 Mansfield Senior (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 144
08/29 L 23-21 A #54 Canal Winchester (4-0) D2 R7, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 149
09/05 W 10-0 A #167 Miamisburg (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 3 (57%), perf. rating 145
09/12 W 35-14 H #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 159
09/19 H #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/26 H #10 Olentangy Orange (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/03 A #114 Hilliard Bradley (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/10 H #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/17 H #61 Olentangy Liberty (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/24 A #15 Upper Arlington (4-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
14.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 4-6), 60% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.70 ( 6.70-36.30) 95% in, 62% home, 17% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 18%
Lose: 10.65 ( 4.25-27.95) 59% in, 21% home, 3% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 29.75 (26.05-36.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(10%) 8W: 23.40 (19.50-30.50) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 91%
(34%) 7W: 17.60 (13.15-25.30) 100% in, 95% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 17%
(33%) 6W: 14.35 ( 9.90-22.85) 99% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 12%
(17%) 5W: 11.20 ( 7.30-17.65) 82% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 13%
( 4%) 4W: 9.30 ( 5.50-13.70) 43% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 29.75 (26.05-36.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 4%) WWWWWL: 23.45 (20.25-30.50) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 91%
( 6%) WLWWWW: 23.35 (19.50-28.30) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 91%
(30%) WLWWWL: 17.55 (13.15-23.30) 100% in, 94% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 14%
(20%) WLWWLL: 14.40 (11.20-18.95) 100% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 12%
( 9%) WLLWWL: 13.65 ( 9.90-18.20) 98% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 14%
(11%) WLLWLL: 11.05 ( 7.30-15.70) 80% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 15%
( 3%) WLLLLL: 9.80 ( 6.70-13.70) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 150.2, #53, D1 #21), 94% (bubble if 4-6), 60% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 150.9, #54, D1 #20), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 60% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 147.0, #78, D1 #29), 81% (bubble if 4-6), 51% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 154.4, #45, D1 #20), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 80% home (maybe if 5-5), 54% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 153.1, #47, D1 #22), 88% (bubble if 3-7), 71% home (maybe if 5-5), 43% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 7-3
Last season 155.6