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Rankings
#69 of 107 in Division 3
#16 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #88 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D3 (-173 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-22 H #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 102
08/29 W 41-25 H #306 Goshen (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 130
09/05 W 49-34 A #477 Portsmouth West (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 106
09/12 L 26-7 A #242 Williamsburg (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 90
09/19 H #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 39 (99%)
09/26 H #142 Jackson (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 25 (6%)
10/03 H #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 A #326 Chillicothe (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/17 H #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 A #571 McClain (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 29 (97%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
59% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.45 ( 5.00-27.45) 60% in, 21% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 13%
Lose: 9.85 ( 5.85-18.90) 31% in, 4% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 24.30 (22.15-27.45) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 91%
(14%) 8W: 19.85 (16.50-24.25) 100% in, 94% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 12%
(26%) 7W: 15.95 (12.20-21.25) 97% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
(31%) 6W: 12.70 ( 9.15-18.15) 53% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Jackson (3-1) 20%
(24%) 5W: 10.00 ( 7.15-14.65) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 28%
( 3%) 4W: 8.40 ( 5.00-11.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 24.30 (22.15-27.45) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 91%
(11%) WLWWWW: 19.80 (17.30-23.60) 100% in, 94% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Miami Trace (4-0) 13%
( 8%) WLWLWW: 16.90 (13.90-20.55) 99% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
(11%) WLLWWW: 15.15 (12.20-19.00) 94% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Jackson (3-1) 16%
(13%) WLLLWW: 12.60 ( 9.15-16.00) 44% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 23%
(10%) WLLWLW: 12.15 ( 9.15-15.90) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 22%
(22%) WLLLLW: 9.70 ( 7.15-13.85) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Jackson (3-1) 29%
( 2%) WLLLLL: 8.05 ( 5.00-10.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 103.5, #346, D3 #69), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 110.0, #284, D3 #56), 89% (bubble if 6-4), 61% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 102.5, #341, D3 #66), 47% (bubble if 7-3), 21% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 96.6, #387, D3 #75), 35% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 88.6, #462, D3 #84), 27% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 86.2