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Rankings
#64 of 107 in Division 3
#14 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #62 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D3 (-165 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 20-7 A #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 108
08/29 L 53-14 A #45 London (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 38 (3%), perf. rating 98
09/05 W 35-16 H #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 113
09/12 W 46-22 H #477 Portsmouth West (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 116
09/19 H #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 2 (45%)
09/26 A #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 8 (31%)
10/03 A #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/10 H #346 Hillsboro (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/17 H #571 McClain (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/24 A #142 Jackson (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
38% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (likely needs 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.70 ( 5.65-26.30) 67% in, 31% home, 5% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 12%
Lose: 8.05 ( 1.85-22.85) 15% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Jackson (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 23.60 (21.70-26.30) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#6), bye 79%
(11%) 7W: 19.40 (17.15-23.05) 100% in, 95% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 13%
(18%) 6W: 15.55 (12.45-19.70) 95% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 17%
(23%) 5W: 11.70 ( 8.90-16.10) 31% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 24%
(25%) 4W: 8.25 ( 5.60-13.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(19%) 3W: 4.95 ( 3.10- 8.95) out, proj. out
( 1%) 2W: 3.25 ( 1.85- 5.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 23.60 (21.70-26.30) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#6), bye 79%
( 9%) WWWWWL: 19.40 (17.25-22.85) 100% in, 95% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Miami Trace (4-0) 14%
( 8%) WLWWWL: 14.95 (12.45-18.25) 94% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
( 6%) WLLWWL: 11.95 ( 9.50-15.60) 47% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 24%
( 7%) LLWWWL: 11.15 ( 9.15-14.30) 18% in, proj. out (#11-out), Jackson (3-1) 28%
(11%) LLLWWL: 8.10 ( 6.20-11.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 100%
(18%) LLLLWL: 4.95 ( 3.10- 8.10) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 3.25 ( 1.85- 5.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 105.4, #326, D3 #64), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (likely needs 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 102.5, #362, D3 #71), 42% (likely needs 6-4), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 93.8, #408, D3 #77), 15% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 98.4, #371, D3 #72), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 90.6, #445, D3 #80), 19% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 91.3