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Rankings
#79 of 104 in Division 3
#17 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #8 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #92 in D3 (-765 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-12 H #223 West Clermont (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 73
08/28 L 28-18 A #355 Hughes (3-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 88
09/04 H #225 Wilmington (1-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (7%)
09/11 H #214 Taft (0-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/18 A #164 Bishop Fenwick (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/25 H #289 Northwest (Cincy) (2-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/02 A #26 Harrison (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/09 A #45 Trotwood-Madison (1-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/16 H #120 Talawanda (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/23 A #49 La Salle (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 46 (1%)
Regular season projections
0-10 record
0.00 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 0.89 ( 0.56- 4.19) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00- 3.26) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 2W: 1.59 ( 1.19- 2.17) out, proj. out
(20%) 1W: 0.82 ( 0.50- 1.18) out, proj. out
(74%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) LLLWLLLL: 0.86 ( 0.70- 0.98) out
( 3%) WLLLLLLL: 0.72 ( 0.56- 0.94) out
( 3%) LWLLLLLL: 0.68 ( 0.50- 0.85) out
(74%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 86.7, #453, D3 #81), 2% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 0-10
Week 1 (0-1, 87.4, #444, D3 #76), 6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 96.4, #395, D3 #73), 25% (bubble if 4-6), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 84.3