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Rankings
#81 of 104 in Division 2
#19 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #42 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #97 in D2 (-725 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-7 A #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 71
08/29 L 42-20 H #377 Hughes (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 17 (80%), perf. rating 64
09/05 L 30-26 A #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 106
09/12 L 69-0 A #46 Taft (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 43 (1%), perf. rating 93
09/19 H #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (25%)
09/26 A #383 Northwest (Cincy) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/03 H #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/10 H #29 Trotwood-Madison (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 44 (1%)
10/17 A #171 Talawanda (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/24 H #40 La Salle (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 42 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
2.27 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.48 ( 1.66-14.57) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00-12.36) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 3W: 9.23 ( 7.66-12.36) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(14%) 2W: 5.04 ( 3.37-10.29) out, proj. out
(34%) 1W: 2.27 ( 1.16- 5.35) out, proj. out
(50%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLLWL: 9.23 ( 8.11-10.39) 18% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 35%
( 1%) LWLLWL: 7.01 ( 5.90- 7.61) out
( 1%) LLLLWL: 4.74 ( 3.02- 5.35) out
(12%) WWLLLL: 4.48 ( 3.37- 6.76) out
(20%) LWLLLL: 2.27 ( 1.16- 3.43) out
(11%) WLLLLL: 2.22 ( 1.66- 3.33) out
(50%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 93.8, #408, D2 #81), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 94.2, #405, D2 #81), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 102.0, #345, D2 #74), 6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 118.8, #222, D2 #49), 41% (bubble if 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 133.3, #136, D2 #31), 71% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 134.8