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Rankings
#48 of 101 in Division 4
#12 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #8 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D4 (-244 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-14 H #73 Indian Hill (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 110
08/28 W 41-28 A #451 Western Hills (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 108
09/03 L 30-27 A #341 Hughes (3-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 102
09/11 H #105 Archbishop McNicholas (1-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 26 (6%)
09/18 A #234 Bishop Ready (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 15 (17%)
09/25 H #131 Harvest Prep (0-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/02 A #307 Williamsburg (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/09 H Indianapolis Southport IN (1-2) D1
10/16 H #192 Cinc. Hills Christian (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/23 A #409 Purcell Marian (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
8.57 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
41% (bubble if 3-7), 17% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.67 ( 3.62-26.78) 81% in, 53% home, 18% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 22%
Lose: 8.42 ( 1.00-25.72) 38% in, 15% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 21.63 (17.59-26.28) 100% home, 75% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 75%
( 5%) 6W: 18.71 (12.95-23.15) 100% in, 96% home, 26% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 26%
(10%) 5W: 15.53 ( 9.37-20.13) 99% in, 70% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Oakwood (3-0) 9%
(20%) 4W: 12.00 ( 6.44-16.14) 86% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 11%
(28%) 3W: 8.57 ( 4.83-12.51) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 13%
(26%) 2W: 5.34 ( 2.71- 8.67) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(10%) 1W: 2.52 ( 1.00- 4.69) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWWW: 21.73 (18.04-25.72) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 79%
( 2%) LWLWLWW: 16.84 (12.65-20.13) 100% in, 87% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Taft (0-3) 10%
( 6%) LLLWWLW: 11.75 ( 7.96-15.79) 85% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 11%
( 6%) LLLWLLW: 9.08 ( 6.25-12.31) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Valley View (1-2) 13%
(11%) LLLLWLW: 7.96 ( 5.08-12.00) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 15%
(11%) LLLLLLW: 5.34 ( 3.27- 7.92) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (2-1) 20%
(10%) LLLLWLL: 5.14 ( 2.71- 8.67) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Oakwood (3-0) 60%
(10%) LLLLLLL: 2.52 ( 1.00- 4.69) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 105.4, #328, D4 #48), 41% (bubble if 3-7), 17% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 104.8, #329, D4 #47), 49% (bubble if 4-6), 24% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 107.0, #309, D4 #42), 49% (bubble if 4-6), 27% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 105.5, #312, D4 #44), 47% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Last season 106.1