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Rankings
#30 of 105 in Division 4
#7 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #40 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #34 in D4 (+2 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 30-7 A #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 113
08/29 W 42-0 H #464 Western Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 144
09/05 W 35-8 H #377 Hughes (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 5 (39%), perf. rating 137
09/12 L 26-0 A #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 18 (14%), perf. rating 108
09/19 H #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/26 A Danville Community IN (2-2) D3
10/03 H #242 Williamsburg (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/10 A #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/17 A #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/24 H #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
16.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.05 ( 7.65-28.00) 99% in, 76% home, 25% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 25%
Lose: 14.00 ( 5.05-23.10) 83% in, 33% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 8W: 24.15 (20.30-28.00) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
(34%) 7W: 20.55 (16.35-24.10) 100% in, 99% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 26%
(30%) 6W: 16.85 (13.00-20.55) 99% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Washington (2-2) 18%
(16%) 5W: 13.00 (10.30-17.30) 99% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Brookville (4-0) 16%
( 4%) 4W: 10.25 ( 7.70-14.10) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 26%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWWWW: 24.15 (20.30-28.00) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
(15%) WLWWWW: 21.00 (18.35-24.10) 100% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 39%
(14%) WWWWLW: 20.35 (17.45-23.75) 100% in, 99% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 16%
( 4%) WWLWWW: 19.40 (16.35-22.30) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Oakwood (4-0) 14%
(13%) WLWWLW: 17.15 (15.05-19.90) 100% in, 77% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 21%
( 8%) WWLWLW: 15.68 (13.00-18.95) 99% in, 51% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Brookville (4-0) 21%
( 8%) WLLWLW: 12.50 (10.35-15.55) 99% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Brookville (4-0) 16%
( 1%) LLLWLW: 9.85 ( 8.90-12.05) 51% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 38%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 121.0, #210, D4 #30), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 124.6, #192, D4 #24), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 58% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 110.9, #288, D4 #42), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 102.3, #345, D4 #50), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 104.0, #322, D4 #50), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 105.8