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Rankings
#55 of 102 in Division 4
#11 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #17 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #72 in D4 (-364 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-14 H #102 Indian Hill (5-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 105
08/28 W 41-28 A #579 Western Hills (1-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 86
09/03 L 30-27 A #297 Hughes (7-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 108
09/11 L 42-6 H #78 Archbishop McNicholas (5-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 88
09/18 L 29-13 A #398 Bishop Ready (3-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%), perf. rating 73
09/25 L 41-7 H #152 Harvest Prep (2-5) D6 R23, pick: L by 26 (5%), perf. rating 76
10/02 L 21-14 A #235 Williamsburg (6-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 27 (4%), perf. rating 109
10/09 H Indianapolis Southport IN (2-5) D1
10/16 H #180 Cinc. Hills Christian (6-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/23 A #473 Purcell Marian (4-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.28 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.24 ( 2.97-11.85) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), North College Hill (6-0) 25%
Lose: 4.28 ( 1.00- 9.78) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 4W: 10.68 (10.18-11.85) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), Oakwood (6-1) 44%
(32%) 3W: 6.24 ( 5.23- 9.78) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 34%
(51%) 2W: 4.28 ( 2.97- 6.45) out, proj. out
(15%) 1W: 1.51 ( 1.00- 2.06) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWW: 10.68 (10.18-11.85) 100% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), Oakwood (6-1) 44%
( 2%) LWW: 8.72 ( 7.76- 9.78) 84% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 28%
(30%) WLW: 6.24 ( 5.23- 7.96) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 41%
(39%) LLW: 4.28 ( 3.27- 5.34) out
(12%) WLL: 3.47 ( 2.97- 4.68) out
(15%) LLL: 1.51 ( 1.00- 2.06) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (1-6, 95.3, #395, D4 #55), 5% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 6 (1-5, 94.2, #398, D4 #59), 14% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (1-4, 96.2, #394, D4 #62), 16% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (1-3, 101.4, #352, D4 #51), 39% (bubble if 3-7), 8% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #10 at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 105.4, #328, D4 #48), 41% (bubble if 3-7), 17% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 104.8, #329, D4 #47), 49% (bubble if 4-6), 24% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 107.0, #309, D4 #42), 49% (bubble if 4-6), 27% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 105.5, #312, D4 #44), 47% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Last season 106.1