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Rankings
#36 of 103 in Division 7
#8 of 27 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #82 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #53 in D7 (-195 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 30-27 H #486 South Point (3-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 75
08/28 W 49-7 A #690 Oak Hill (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (96%), perf. rating 81
09/04 W 31-6 H #613 Minford (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 25 (92%), perf. rating 90
09/11 L 42-20 A #444 Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 57
09/18 A #630 Southern (Racine) (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/25 H #697 Sciotoville Community (0-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/02 A #260 Symmes Valley (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/09 H #623 Notre Dame (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 A #621 South Gallia (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/23 H #698 Green (FF) (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
10.10 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#10 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
90% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.79 ( 3.45-15.71) 93% in, 30% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 25%
Lose: 7.91 ( 2.43-12.81) 54% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 14.02 (12.90-15.71) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Notre Dame (2-1) 16%
(72%) 7W: 10.10 ( 8.62-13.88) 99% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 29%
(21%) 6W: 7.86 ( 6.33-10.87) 78% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 25%
( 5%) 5W: 5.68 ( 4.50- 8.79) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 1%) 4W: 3.49 ( 3.08- 5.68) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 14.02 (12.90-15.71) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Notre Dame (2-1) 16%
(72%) WWLWWW: 10.10 ( 8.62-12.55) 99% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 29%
( 1%) WLLWWW: 9.39 ( 8.32-10.77) 99% in, 20% home, proj. #9 (#7-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 26%
( 5%) LWLWWW: 7.97 ( 7.51-10.06) 88% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 25%
( 6%) WWLLWW: 7.91 ( 6.79- 9.19) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 21%
( 9%) WWLWLW: 7.46 ( 6.33- 9.29) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 32%
( 2%) WWLLLW: 5.27 ( 4.50- 6.54) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 43%
( 1%) LWLLLW: 3.49 ( 3.08- 4.46) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 75.2, #520, D7 #36), 90% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 84.9, #463, D7 #28), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 81.5, #483, D7 #32), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 76.8, #512, D7 #36), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 62% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 87.7, #450, D7 #25), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 81% home (maybe if 7-3), 58% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 90.4