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Rankings
#59 of 105 in Division 4
#15 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #61 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D4 (-347 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 27-12 A #165 Granville (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 109
08/29 L 18-15 H #293 Delaware Hayes (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 103
09/05 L 20-0 H #195 Holy Name (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 15 (20%), perf. rating 92
09/11 W 21-0 H #497 Independence (Cbus) (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 109
09/19 H #189 Walnut Ridge (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/26 A #158 Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/03 A #643 West (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/10 H #536 Eastmoor Academy (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/17 A #482 Briggs (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/24 A #613 South (Columbus) (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.15 ( 7.25-20.00) 95% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 12%
Lose: 11.75 ( 2.70-17.75) 37% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 6W: 15.25 (15.10-18.00) 99% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 14%
(67%) 5W: 11.75 (10.50-15.35) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 17%
(19%) 4W: 8.30 ( 7.70-12.90) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 3W: 6.00 ( 4.90- 8.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWWWWW: 15.95 (15.75-17.75) 100% in, 51% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Indian Creek (4-0) 14%
( 7%) WLWWWW: 15.15 (15.10-16.55) 99% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 13%
(66%) LLWWWW: 11.75 (11.70-13.55) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 17%
( 1%) LLWWWL: 10.00 ( 8.35-11.25) 7% in, proj. out (#11-out), Unioto (4-0) 33%
( 4%) LLWLWW: 8.95 ( 8.40-10.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Circleville (4-0) 100%
(13%) LLWWLW: 7.70 ( 7.70-10.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Jonathan Alder (4-0) 50%
( 2%) LLWLLW: 5.50 ( 4.95- 7.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 100.9, #363, D4 #59), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 102.4, #364, D4 #57), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 102.2, #344, D4 #52), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 99.8, #362, D4 #55), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 94.5, #407, D4 #69), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 91.8