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Rankings
#84 of 100 in Division 2
#22 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #99 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D2 (+15 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 14-9 H #453 Franklin Heights (0-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 92
08/28 W 12-3 A #551 Central Crossing (0-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 87
09/04 H #605 Centennial (0-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 21 (88%)
09/11 A #526 Eastmoor Academy (0-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 4 (59%)
09/17 A #378 Africentric Early Coll. (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 18 (13%)
09/24 H #246 Walnut Ridge (0-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/02 A #352 Marion-Franklin (0-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/08 H #455 Independence (Cbus) (1-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/16 A #471 South (Columbus) (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/23 H #529 Briggs (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
3.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
30% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.85 ( 1.80- 7.59) 32% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Talawanda (2-0) 13%
Lose: 2.14 ( 1.25- 6.80) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 6.46 ( 6.14- 6.80) 100% in, 98% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 21%
( 8%) 8W: 5.68 ( 5.28- 6.10) 100% in, 66% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Kings (1-1) 12%
(14%) 7W: 4.92 ( 4.37- 5.45) 87% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (2-0) 16%
(21%) 6W: 4.13 ( 3.74- 4.67) 25% in, proj. out (#9-out), Talawanda (2-0) 21%
(21%) 5W: 3.40 ( 2.97- 3.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(19%) 4W: 2.69 ( 2.41- 3.08) out, proj. out
(12%) 3W: 2.02 ( 1.70- 2.39) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 1.36 ( 1.25- 1.58) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLLWWWW: 5.70 ( 5.46- 6.04) 100% in, 70% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Lima Senior (1-1) 13%
( 6%) WWLLLWWW: 4.96 ( 4.74- 5.32) 89% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Talawanda (2-0) 13%
( 6%) WWLLLWLW: 4.09 ( 3.83- 4.45) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Talawanda (2-0) 41%
( 6%) WWLLLLLW: 3.35 ( 3.12- 3.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Talawanda (2-0) 100%
( 7%) WLLLLLLW: 2.69 ( 2.52- 3.03) out
( 5%) WWLLLLLL: 2.58 ( 2.41- 2.91) out
( 9%) WLLLLLLL: 2.02 ( 1.80- 2.31) out
( 2%) LLLLLLLL: 1.35 ( 1.25- 1.58) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 81.2, #486, D2 #84), 18% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 78.7, #501, D2 #86), 21% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 63.5, #589, D2 #96), 4% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 65.1