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Rankings
#49 of 105 in Division 5
#8 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #45 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #79 in D5 (-407 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 14-6 A #183 Groveport Madison (1-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 115
08/28 L 26-0 H #199 Buckeye Valley (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 8 (66%), perf. rating 82
09/03 L 12-8 A #402 Northland (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 90
09/11 A #529 Briggs (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 20 (88%)
09/17 H #488 West (2-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/25 A #352 Marion-Franklin (0-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/02 H #455 Independence (Cbus) (1-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/09 A #471 South (Columbus) (3-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/16 H #246 Walnut Ridge (0-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/23 H #526 Eastmoor Academy (0-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
3.94 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
72% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 5-5), 17% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.94 ( 0.66- 5.80) 78% in, 54% home, 19% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 24%
Lose: 2.21 ( 0.00- 5.00) 28% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Wheelersburg (1-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 7W: 5.68 ( 5.58- 5.80) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(23%) 6W: 4.74 ( 4.53- 5.14) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 33%
(25%) 5W: 3.94 ( 3.64- 4.28) 99% in, 64% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Ridgewood (1-1) 12%
(20%) 4W: 3.06 ( 2.76- 3.56) 73% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Piketon (2-0) 15%
(13%) 3W: 2.23 ( 1.88- 2.67) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 6%) 2W: 1.46 ( 1.10- 1.92) out, proj. out
( 3%) 1W: 0.72 ( 0.55- 0.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWWW: 5.67 ( 5.58- 5.80) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 6%) WWLWWWW: 4.89 ( 4.78- 5.14) 100% in, 99% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 38%
(14%) WWWWWLW: 4.74 ( 4.63- 5.01) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 30%
(14%) WWLWWLW: 3.96 ( 3.88- 4.19) 100% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Ridgewood (1-1) 12%
( 3%) WWWWLLW: 3.78 ( 3.65- 4.01) 100% in, 40% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Piketon (2-0) 13%
( 4%) WWLLWLW: 3.11 ( 2.94- 3.36) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Fairland (1-1) 14%
( 6%) WWLWLLW: 3.04 ( 2.88- 3.37) 70% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Piketon (2-0) 17%
( 3%) WWLLLLW: 2.22 ( 2.10- 2.55) 4% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wheelersburg (1-1) 40%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 101.7, #351, D5 #43), 83% (bubble if 4-6), 68% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 116.5, #237, D5 #20), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 59% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 109.9, #283, D5 #34), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 64% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 108.0