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Rankings
#6 of 103 in Division 7
#2 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #15 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D7 (+470 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 40-3 A #539 Calvert (0-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 131
08/28 W 26-7 H #302 McComb (2-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 10 (69%), perf. rating 134
09/04 W 51-0 A #618 Riverdale (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 118
09/11 A #553 Arlington (0-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 38 (99%)
09/18 H #352 Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/25 A #438 Ada (3-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/02 A #579 Arcadia (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/09 H #513 Elmwood (1-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/16 H #294 Van Buren (3-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/23 H #491 Waite (1-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
21.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 98% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.35 ( 5.75-24.10) 99% in, 99% home, 98% bye, proj. #1 (#1-out), bye 98%
Lose: 17.70 ( 5.75-22.15) 100% in, 96% home, 83% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#12), bye 83%
Based on eventual number of wins
(70%) 10W: 21.80 (18.55-24.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(22%) 9W: 18.50 (14.55-22.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 6%) 8W: 15.55 (13.00-19.05) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 85%
( 1%) 7W: 12.90 (10.40-16.90) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 32%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(70%) WWWWWWW: 21.80 (18.55-24.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWLWWW: 20.45 (18.35-22.15) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWWLWW: 19.45 (17.50-22.10) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 5%) WLWWWWW: 19.15 (16.45-21.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WWLWWWW: 18.80 (15.70-21.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(12%) WWWWWLW: 18.10 (14.55-20.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 3%) WLWWWLW: 15.35 (13.00-17.45) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 77%
( 1%) WWLWWLW: 15.30 (13.05-17.40) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 88%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 124.9, #181, D7 #6), likely in and likely home, 98% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 129.7, #152, D7 #5), likely in and likely home, 97% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 124.4, #182, D7 #6), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 83% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 116.1, #230, D7 #6), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 83% home (maybe if 6-4), 58% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Last season 120.4