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Rankings
#25 of 107 in Division 7
#10 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #10 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D7 (+142 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 39-6 A #237 Mohawk (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 70
08/29 W 35-21 A #369 Monroeville (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 123
09/05 L 22-20 H #405 St Paul (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 9 (69%), perf. rating 90
09/12 L 54-0 A #149 Hopewell-Loudon (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 29 (4%), perf. rating 72
09/19 H #503 Lakota (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/26 H #280 Gibsonburg (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/03 A #508 Northwood (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/10 H #260 Margaretta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/17 A #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/24 H #568 Willard (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
38% (likely needs 5-5), 15% home (likely needs 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.40 ( 3.70-18.70) 43% in, 17% home, 5% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 11%
Lose: 5.55 ( 2.20-15.60) 7% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Arlington (4-0) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 17.25 (16.35-18.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) 6W: 14.05 (12.80-17.15) 100% in, 99% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 21%
(22%) 5W: 10.95 ( 9.75-14.75) 95% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Edon (3-1) 11%
(39%) 4W: 8.30 ( 7.05-11.20) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Mohawk (3-1) 15%
(20%) 3W: 6.05 ( 4.45- 8.85) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 7%) 2W: 4.10 ( 2.95- 6.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 17.25 (16.35-18.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 7%) WLWLWW: 11.15 (10.05-12.40) 95% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Edon (3-1) 12%
( 8%) WWWLLW: 10.90 ( 9.75-12.50) 97% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Edon (3-1) 10%
( 7%) WLWWLW: 10.90 ( 9.75-12.50) 94% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Mohawk (3-1) 11%
(33%) WLWLLW: 8.00 ( 7.10- 9.85) 12% in, proj. out (#9-out), Mohawk (3-1) 17%
(11%) WLLLLW: 6.05 ( 4.85- 8.10) out
( 5%) LLWLLW: 5.95 ( 4.45- 7.15) out
( 4%) LLLLLW: 4.10 ( 2.95- 5.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 94.8, #406, D7 #25), 38% (likely needs 5-5), 15% home (likely needs 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 98.3, #382, D7 #23), 51% (bubble if 4-6), 27% home (likely needs 6-4), 10% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 103.5, #332, D7 #16), 81% (bubble if 4-6), 57% home (maybe if 5-5), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 86.4, #462, D7 #30), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 98.4, #368, D7 #22), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 96.7