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Rankings
#3 of 107 in Division 6
#2 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #8 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D6 (+525 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 30-7 H #262 Carey (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 147
08/29 W 14-7 H #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 104
09/05 W 22-14 A #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 16 (19%), perf. rating 142
09/12 W 54-0 H #406 Calvert (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 29 (96%), perf. rating 155
09/19 A #280 Gibsonburg (3-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 19 (88%)
09/26 A #503 Lakota (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/03 H #260 Margaretta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/10 A #568 Willard (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/17 H #508 Northwood (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/24 A #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
25.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 97% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.55 (15.35-28.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#8), bye 99%
Lose: 20.90 (10.50-24.45) 99% in, 99% home, 84% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 84%
Based on eventual number of wins
(66%) 10W: 25.90 (22.35-28.20) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(24%) 9W: 22.30 (18.80-26.25) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 7%) 8W: 19.10 (15.70-22.45) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 84%
( 2%) 7W: 16.05 (13.00-19.70) 100% in, 96% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(66%) WWWWWW: 25.90 (22.35-28.20) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 6%) LWWWWW: 22.40 (19.45-24.45) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) WWLWWW: 22.25 (19.40-24.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 9%) WWWWWL: 22.10 (18.80-24.75) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 19.17 (15.70-22.05) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 88%
( 2%) LWWWWL: 19.00 (16.00-21.20) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 87%
( 2%) WWLWWL: 18.90 (16.20-21.00) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 72%
( 1%) LWLWWL: 15.68 (13.00-18.25) 100% in, 95% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 132.1, #149, D6 #3), likely in and likely home, 97% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 130.2, #155, D6 #5), likely in and likely home, 97% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 125.1, #182, D6 #9), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 80% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 130.6, #145, D6 #6), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 84% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 123.6, #188, D6 #9), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 64% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Last season 123.3