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Rankings
#85 of 106 in Division 5
#21 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #49 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D5 (-210 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 46-12 A #656 South Central (0-4) D7 R25, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 96
08/28 W 50-28 A #671 Plymouth (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 71
09/06 L 60-22 H #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 34 (3%), perf. rating 52
09/12 L 42-0 H #260 Margaretta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 50
09/19 H #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 32 (2%)
09/26 H #508 Northwood (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 8 (31%)
10/03 A #503 Lakota (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/10 H #149 Hopewell-Loudon (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/17 A #280 Gibsonburg (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/24 A #406 Calvert (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.40 ( 3.40-13.40) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 2.65 ( 1.05-11.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 5W: 7.35 ( 5.75-10.90) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(13%) 4W: 5.20 ( 3.50- 8.45) out, proj. out
(31%) 3W: 3.60 ( 1.75- 7.05) out, proj. out
(53%) 2W: 1.85 ( 1.05- 3.40) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLLW: 7.10 ( 5.75- 8.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 50%
( 9%) LWWLLL: 5.20 ( 4.35- 7.15) out
( 2%) LWLLLW: 4.80 ( 3.50- 6.40) out
(10%) LLWLLL: 3.40 ( 2.55- 5.75) out
( 3%) LLLLLW: 3.35 ( 1.75- 4.95) out
(16%) LWLLLL: 3.25 ( 2.45- 5.25) out
(53%) LLLLLL: 1.85 ( 1.05- 3.40) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 68.7, #568, D5 #85), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (2-1, 73.4, #543, D5 #81), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (2-0, 71.0, #563, D5 #85), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 71.7, #554, D5 #82), 12% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 54.4, #629, D5 #95), 7% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 52.6