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Rankings
#53 of 72 in Division 1
#13 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #36 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D1 (-355 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 L 21-14 A #142 Jackson (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 125
08/29 L 26-22 H #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 13 (26%), perf. rating 126
09/05 L 50-7 H #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 44 (1%), perf. rating 115
09/12 W 33-0 A #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 25 (93%), perf. rating 135
09/19 H #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (8%)
09/26 A #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/03 H #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/10 A #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/17 H #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/24 A #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
3.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
36% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.60 ( 4.50-24.15) 88% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Lakota East (3-1) 24%
Lose: 3.20 ( 1.30-19.05) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 5W: 13.35 (11.50-17.15) 100% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Mason (2-2) 26%
(10%) 4W: 9.50 ( 7.60-14.00) 99% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Lakota East (3-1) 28%
(27%) 3W: 5.75 ( 4.50-12.05) 75% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 28%
(35%) 2W: 3.20 ( 2.60- 7.65) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 30%
(25%) 1W: 1.30 ( 1.30- 2.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLWWW: 12.15 (11.50-14.60) 100% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Mason (2-2) 28%
( 2%) WLLLWW: 9.65 ( 9.00-13.30) 99% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 34%
( 4%) LLLWWW: 8.30 ( 7.60-10.20) 97% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 25%
( 2%) LLLWLW: 6.35 ( 5.65- 7.60) 71% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 34%
(19%) LLLLWW: 5.15 ( 5.15- 8.25) 77% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 28%
(12%) LLLLLW: 3.20 ( 3.20- 5.70) 11% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakota West (2-2) 29%
(20%) LLLLWL: 2.60 ( 2.60- 5.05) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 32%
(25%) LLLLLL: 1.30 ( 1.30- 2.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 120.4, #214, D1 #53), 36% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 114.9, #252, D1 #58), 22% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 114.7, #261, D1 #59), 24% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 112.4, #272, D1 #62), 24% (bubble if 3-7), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 105.7, #312, D1 #65), 22% (bubble if 3-7), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 103.4