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Rankings
#67 of 72 in Division 1
#17 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #44 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #67 in D1 (-612 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 27-24 A #464 Western Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 90
08/29 L 37-0 A #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 67
09/05 L 47-6 A #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 75
09/12 L 33-0 H #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 25 (7%), perf. rating 69
09/19 H #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 45 (1%)
09/26 A #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/03 H #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/10 A #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/17 H #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/24 A #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 47 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 2-8), no home game
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.60 ( 4.90-13.40) 73% in, proj. #12 (#9-out)
Lose: 2.15 ( 1.15-12.30) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 2W: 5.30 ( 2.40- 9.60) 48% in, proj. out (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
(92%) 1W: 1.70 ( 1.15- 3.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLLLWL: 6.60 ( 4.85- 9.00) 75% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 31%
( 3%) LLWLLL: 3.60 ( 2.40- 6.45) 15% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakota West (2-2) 31%
(92%) LLLLLL: 1.70 ( 1.15- 3.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 84.3, #462, D1 #67), 4% (bubble if 2-8), no home game, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (1-2, 85.9, #457, D1 #67), 4% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (1-1, 85.4, #463, D1 #68), 4% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (1-0, 92.2, #422, D1 #67), 9% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 97.5, #379, D1 #68), 17% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 96.4