Region 4 home page
Region 4 projections
Region 4 playoff probabilities
Region 4 seeding probabilities
Eitel Region 4 page
Eitel team page
Team history page
Rankings
#52 of 72 in Division 1
#12 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #47 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D1 (-158 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-7 H #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 6 (61%), perf. rating 144
08/29 L 49-7 A #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 119
09/05 L 49-14 A #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 95
09/12 L 31-0 H #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 108
09/19 A #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 H #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/03 A #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 H #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/17 A #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/24 H #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
46% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.25 ( 1.90-18.40) 72% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 22%
Lose: 3.20 ( 0.60-15.75) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 6W: 11.95 (10.75-15.80) 100% in, 24% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Lakota East (3-1) 32%
(14%) 5W: 8.70 ( 7.60-13.20) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 26%
(25%) 4W: 5.75 ( 5.05-10.70) 79% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 29%
(30%) 3W: 3.85 ( 3.20- 8.75) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 27%
(24%) 2W: 2.40 ( 1.85- 5.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 2%) 1W: 1.10 ( 0.60- 2.30) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWLWW: 11.45 (10.75-14.40) 100% in, 14% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Lakota East (3-1) 34%
( 8%) WWWLLW: 8.30 ( 7.65-11.85) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 27%
( 4%) LWWLLW: 6.25 ( 5.10- 9.50) 68% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 28%
(14%) WLWLLW: 5.75 ( 5.15- 8.05) 83% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 30%
(14%) LLWLLW: 3.80 ( 3.20- 6.85) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
(11%) WLWLLL: 3.80 ( 3.20- 6.75) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 28%
(23%) LLWLLL: 2.40 ( 1.90- 4.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lakota West (2-2) 50%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 1.10 ( 0.60- 2.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 120.6, #213, D1 #52), 46% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 123.5, #195, D1 #52), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 139.7, #97, D1 #34), 91% (bubble if 3-7), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 151.9, #55, D1 #23), 97% (bubble if 3-7), 75% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 137.4, #114, D1 #40), 79% (bubble if 3-7), 46% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 138.8