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Rankings
#56 of 80 in Division 1
#17 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #63 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #53 in D1 (-174 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-12 A #365 Mount Healthy (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 13 (72%), perf. rating 147
08/28 L 70-19 H #7 Anderson (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 40 (2%), perf. rating 116
09/04 L 34-20 H #79 Lebanon (3-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 18 (16%), perf. rating 119
09/11 A #108 Kings (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 16 (17%)
09/18 H #186 Milford (1-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/25 A #211 Turpin (1-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/02 H #471 Walnut Hills (0-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/09 A #33 Winton Woods (2-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/16 H #404 Loveland (0-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/23 A #171 Little Miami (2-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (35%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
24% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.90 ( 4.15-23.45) 65% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Lebanon (3-0) 16%
Lose: 6.00 ( 1.05-19.45) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Lakota East (2-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 20.95 (19.60-23.45) 100% in, 94% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Oak Hills (2-1) 21%
( 7%) 7W: 16.00 (14.75-20.70) 99% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Lebanon (3-0) 20%
(17%) 6W: 12.10 (10.90-17.90) 78% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lakota East (2-1) 17%
(22%) 5W: 8.90 ( 7.25-14.70) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lakota East (2-1) 21%
(25%) 4W: 5.95 ( 4.75-11.50) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(23%) 3W: 3.50 ( 2.90- 9.75) out, proj. out
( 5%) 2W: 2.25 ( 1.65- 6.45) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 1.55 ( 1.05- 3.15) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 20.95 (19.60-23.45) 100% in, 94% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Oak Hills (2-1) 21%
( 6%) WWWWLWW: 15.95 (15.15-19.50) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Lebanon (3-0) 21%
(11%) LWWWLWW: 11.60 (10.90-15.55) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lakota East (2-1) 17%
( 8%) LWWWLWL: 8.00 ( 7.25-11.55) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (2-1) 19%
( 8%) LWLWLWL: 5.50 ( 4.80- 9.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Archbishop Moeller (1-2) 100%
( 8%) LLWWLWL: 5.40 ( 4.75- 8.70) out
(19%) LLLWLWL: 3.45 ( 2.90- 6.00) out
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 1.55 ( 1.05- 3.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 122.4, #202, D1 #56), 24% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 119.4, #225, D1 #62), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 120.6, #212, D1 #58), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 111.6, #272, D1 #68), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 103.2