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Rankings
#30 of 100 in Division 2
#7 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #48 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D2 (-5 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-6 H #362 Sycamore (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 38 (96%), perf. rating 140
08/28 L 35-0 A #19 Winton Woods (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 119
09/04 A #396 Loveland (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 33 (97%)
09/11 H #223 West Clermont (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 21 (89%)
09/18 A #7 Anderson (1-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/25 H #95 Lebanon (2-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/02 H #176 Little Miami (2-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/09 A #192 Milford (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/16 H #211 Turpin (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/23 A #477 Walnut Hills (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
5.57 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
81% (likely needs 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.56 ( 1.25- 7.84) 82% in, 57% home, 16% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 19%
Lose: 3.88 ( 0.65- 7.05) 38% in, 12% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#4-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(31%) 8W: 6.60 ( 6.48- 7.05) 100% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 45%
(31%) 7W: 5.57 ( 5.47- 6.07) 100% in, 74% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Trotwood-Madison (1-1) 12%
(19%) 6W: 4.62 ( 4.46- 5.28) 87% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (2-0) 18%
(10%) 5W: 3.74 ( 3.52- 4.20) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 4W: 2.86 ( 2.68- 3.48) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(30%) WWLWWWWW: 6.60 ( 6.58- 6.92) 100% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 45%
( 3%) WWLWWWLW: 5.75 ( 5.68- 5.99) 100% in, 79% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Trotwood-Madison (1-1) 13%
( 5%) WWLWWLWW: 5.63 ( 5.55- 5.96) 100% in, 80% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Trotwood-Madison (1-1) 14%
( 4%) WWLWLWWW: 5.58 ( 5.50- 5.83) 100% in, 71% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Lima Senior (1-1) 11%
(17%) WWLLWWWW: 5.51 ( 5.49- 5.76) 100% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Trotwood-Madison (1-1) 13%
( 5%) WWLLWLWW: 4.60 ( 4.52- 5.04) 87% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (2-0) 16%
( 4%) WWLLLWWW: 4.54 ( 4.47- 4.75) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Talawanda (2-0) 21%
( 3%) WWLLLLLW: 2.85 ( 2.79- 3.12) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 138.4, #100, D2 #30), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (likely needs 8-2), 3% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 149.0, #60, D2 #21), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 58% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 151.3, #53, D2 #17), 74% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 7-3
Last season 150.5