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Rankings
#14 of 104 in Division 2
#4 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #30 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #7 in D2 (+375 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 44-7 A #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 166
08/29 W 16-14 H #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 156
09/05 W 21-14 H #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 147
09/12 W 31-0 A #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 169
09/19 H #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/26 A #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/03 A #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 H #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/17 A #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 H #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 47 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
26.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 74% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 32.55 (20.35-35.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
Lose: 26.20 (12.10-30.15) 100% in, 99% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#12), bye 72%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 10W: 33.10 (32.35-35.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(53%) 9W: 26.85 (26.00-31.95) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(29%) 8W: 21.80 (20.30-27.50) 100% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 51%
( 9%) 7W: 18.05 (16.55-24.85) 100% in, 95% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Butler (3-1) 14%
( 1%) 6W: 15.90 (12.80-20.35) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Turpin (2-2) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 33.10 (32.35-35.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 1%) WLWWWW: 27.45 (26.60-30.70) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(51%) LWWWWW: 26.85 (26.00-30.15) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 24.30 (21.70-26.90) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 84%
( 1%) LWWLWW: 23.65 (22.35-25.60) 100% home, 74% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 74%
( 7%) LWWWLW: 23.05 (21.75-25.60) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 69%
(19%) LLWWWW: 21.20 (20.30-24.30) 100% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 39%
( 6%) LLWWLW: 17.95 (16.65-20.55) 100% in, 93% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Butler (3-1) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 155.9, #42, D2 #14), appears locked in and likely home, 74% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 153.7, #49, D2 #16), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 64% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 157.9, #41, D2 #13), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 65% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 158.4, #36, D2 #11), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 153.4, #45, D2 #10), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 65% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 156.0