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Rankings
#29 of 72 in Division 1
#8 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #54 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #23 in D1 (+110 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 20-5 A #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 6 (61%), perf. rating 132
08/29 W 28-25 H #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 141
09/05 W 49-14 H #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 171
09/12 L 36-10 A #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 27 (5%), perf. rating 143
09/19 A #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/26 H #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/03 A #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/10 H #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/17 A #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/24 H #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (likely needs 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.65 ( 7.65-29.35) 98% in, 75% home, 36% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 37%
Lose: 12.80 ( 5.10-25.40) 82% in, 31% home, 8% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Springboro (2-2) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 9W: 26.20 (26.00-29.35) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(27%) 8W: 21.05 (20.30-26.15) 100% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 73%
(35%) 7W: 15.95 (15.20-23.55) 100% in, 82% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 11%
(19%) 6W: 12.75 (11.45-17.85) 97% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
( 6%) 5W: 10.20 ( 8.30-15.20) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(12%) WWWWWW: 26.20 (26.00-29.35) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) WWWWWL: 21.10 (20.85-23.05) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 77%
(14%) WLWWWW: 20.50 (20.30-23.00) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 67%
(27%) WLWWWL: 15.40 (15.20-18.60) 100% in, 78% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 12%
( 3%) LLWWWL: 13.40 (12.05-15.20) 99% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Springboro (2-2) 14%
( 3%) WLLWWL: 12.80 (12.05-16.70) 100% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
(11%) WLWLWL: 12.20 (11.45-14.70) 96% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
( 2%) LLWLWL: 9.65 ( 8.30-12.15) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 145.2, #75, D1 #29), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (likely needs 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 148.7, #65, D1 #27), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 137.3, #111, D1 #36), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 139.4, #109, D1 #38), 80% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 133.9, #131, D1 #43), 63% (bubble if 4-6), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 131.1