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Rankings
#54 of 72 in Division 1
#14 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #31 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D1 (-260 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-0 A #49 Withrow (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 101
08/29 W 37-0 H #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 137
09/05 L 38-17 H #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 26 (7%), perf. rating 122
09/12 L 42-21 A #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 110
09/19 H #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 A #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/03 H #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/10 A #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/17 A #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/24 H #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
3.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
39% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.75 ( 3.20-24.70) 64% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 21%
Lose: 1.30 ( 1.30-22.25) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 5W: 12.80 (12.10-16.55) 100% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Lakota East (3-1) 32%
(14%) 4W: 8.35 ( 7.65-15.15) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 25%
(24%) 3W: 5.75 ( 4.50-12.00) 72% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
(32%) 2W: 3.20 ( 2.60- 8.20) 13% in, proj. out (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 30%
(26%) 1W: 1.30 ( 1.30- 2.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLWLWW: 12.75 (12.10-15.20) 100% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Lakota East (3-1) 30%
( 9%) WLLLWW: 8.25 ( 7.65-11.40) 98% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 24%
( 5%) WLLLLW: 6.35 ( 5.70- 8.80) 72% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 29%
(13%) WLLLWL: 5.15 ( 5.15- 7.60) 76% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
( 4%) LLLLWW: 5.15 ( 4.50- 8.85) 45% in, proj. out (#10-out), Lakota West (2-2) 26%
(16%) WLLLLL: 3.20 ( 3.20- 5.70) 14% in, proj. out (#11-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 32%
(10%) LLLLWL: 2.60 ( 2.60- 4.55) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakota West (2-2) 29%
(26%) LLLLLL: 1.30 ( 1.30- 2.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 120.0, #218, D1 #54), 39% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 126.7, #180, D1 #49), 64% (bubble if 3-7), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 126.2, #174, D1 #49), 60% (bubble if 3-7), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 123.0, #188, D1 #52), 43% (bubble if 3-7), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 136.3, #117, D1 #41), 75% (bubble if 3-7), 42% home (maybe if 5-5), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 127.0