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Rankings
#17 of 72 in Division 1
#6 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #42 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #13 in D1 (+258 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-14 H #35 Springfield (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 167
08/29 L 16-14 A #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 155
09/05 W 38-17 A #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 153
09/12 W 13-6 H #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 27 (95%), perf. rating 142
09/19 A #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 45 (99%)
09/26 H #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/03 H #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/10 A #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/17 H #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/24 A #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
24.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 22% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.60 ( 9.60-33.00) 100% in, 99% home, 22% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 22%
Lose: 17.90 ( 9.65-30.00) 100% in, 93% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Walnut Hills (1-3) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 30.55 (27.30-33.00) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
(51%) 8W: 24.30 (21.05-30.00) 100% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 27%
(30%) 7W: 19.80 (15.90-25.50) 100% in, 99% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 22%
( 9%) 6W: 16.00 (12.75-21.00) 100% in, 94% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Oak Hills (1-3) 19%
( 1%) 5W: 13.40 ( 9.65-17.95) 100% in, 70% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Mason (2-2) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 30.55 (27.30-33.00) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 1%) WWWWWL: 25.45 (22.85-27.45) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 55%
(49%) WWWWLW: 24.30 (21.05-27.40) 100% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 26%
( 5%) WWLWLW: 20.50 (17.85-23.60) 100% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 22%
( 2%) WWWLLW: 20.50 (17.85-23.75) 100% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 20%
(22%) WWWWLL: 19.20 (15.90-23.00) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 22%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 15.45 (12.75-19.10) 100% in, 96% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Oak Hills (1-3) 23%
( 2%) WWWLLL: 15.40 (12.75-18.60) 100% in, 86% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), West Clermont (1-3) 32%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 155.4, #43, D1 #17), appears locked in and likely home, 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 156.9, #40, D1 #16), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 5-5), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 157.5, #42, D1 #17), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 5-5), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 159.7, #30, D1 #14), likely in, 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 48% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 158.0, #32, D1 #14), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 78% home (maybe if 5-5), 49% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 159.1