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Region 4 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#14 of 80 in Division 1
#6 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #55 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #80 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #28 Springfield (0-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 3 (44%)
08/28 H #53 Kings (0-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 11 (71%)
09/04 H #266 Milford (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 37 (98%)
09/11 A #120 Turpin (0-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 22 (90%)
09/18 H #387 Walnut Hills (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 44 (99%)
09/25 A #181 Little Miami (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/02 A #131 Loveland (0-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 H #272 West Clermont (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/16 A #8 Anderson (0-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/23 H #114 Lebanon (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 24 (94%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
25.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
92% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 50% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 29.00 ( 2.60-39.60) 99% in, 95% home, 75% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 76%
Lose: 19.70 ( 0.00-33.40) 86% in, 66% home, 30% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 35%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 10W: 35.45 (30.60-39.60) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(21%) 9W: 30.35 (25.30-37.95) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(22%) 8W: 25.50 (19.90-32.10) 100% in, 99% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 73%
(17%) 7W: 20.65 (15.25-29.05) 100% in, 97% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 15%
(12%) 6W: 16.15 (11.15-25.85) 99% in, 62% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Elder (0-0) 9%
( 8%) 5W: 12.05 ( 8.20-21.55) 91% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
( 5%) 4W: 8.75 ( 5.75-15.95) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Lebanon (0-0) 10%
( 3%) 3W: 5.60 ( 3.75-13.45) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 1%) 2W: 3.20 ( 1.85-10.10) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 1.15 ( 0.60- 5.65) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Elder (0-0) 4%
Lebanon (0-0) 4%
Middletown (0-0) 3%
Hamilton (0-0) 3%
Most likely second round opponents
Elder (0-0) 12%
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 11%
St Xavier (0-0) 11%
Princeton (0-0) 9%
Lakota West (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 160.3, #29, D1 #14), 92% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 50% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Last season 161.2