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Rankings
#5 of 100 in Division 2
#1 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #38 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D2 (+260 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 59-13 H Louisville Trinity KY (3-0) D1
08/28 W 70-19 A #202 West Clermont (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 40 (98%), perf. rating 187
09/04 W 51-14 H #171 Little Miami (2-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 179
09/11 A #79 Lebanon (3-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 30 (96%)
09/18 H #108 Kings (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/25 A #186 Milford (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/02 H #211 Turpin (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/09 A #471 Walnut Hills (0-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/16 H #33 Winton Woods (2-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/23 A #404 Loveland (0-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
30.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 96% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 30.70 (14.90-31.10) 100% in, 99% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#12), bye 98%
Lose: 24.40 (14.25-27.05) 99% in, 95% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 60%
Based on eventual number of wins
(79%) 9W: 30.75 (30.45-31.10) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(17%) 8W: 25.10 (24.15-30.35) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 94%
( 3%) 7W: 20.05 (19.10-28.15) 100% in, 95% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(79%) WWWWWWW: 30.75 (30.45-31.10) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWWLWW: 30.05 (28.05-30.35) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWWWWL: 29.50 (27.75-30.20) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWLWWW: 27.58 (25.80-29.50) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 1%) WWLWWWW: 26.90 (25.50-29.00) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(11%) WWWWWLW: 25.05 (24.75-27.05) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 94%
( 2%) LWWWWWW: 25.00 (24.15-27.05) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
( 1%) LWWWWLW: 19.35 (19.10-20.70) 100% in, 96% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Withrow (2-1) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 180.5, #7, D2 #5), likely in and likely home, 96% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 180.2, #7, D2 #5), likely in and likely home, 94% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (0-1, 178.6, #6, D2 #5), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 87% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 178.6, #8, D2 #4), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 84% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 179.9