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Rankings
#33 of 104 in Division 2
#7 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #18 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #49 in D2 (-152 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-14 H #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 119
08/29 L 28-25 A #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 143
09/05 L 21-14 A #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 26 (7%), perf. rating 148
09/12 W 42-21 H #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 11 (74%), perf. rating 149
09/19 A #136 Turpin (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 3 (57%)
09/26 H #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/03 A #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/10 H #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/17 H #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 A #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 33 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
44% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.95 ( 3.85-24.30) 70% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Xenia (3-1) 20%
Lose: 7.75 ( 1.30-19.85) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Xenia (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 6W: 16.05 (15.35-20.50) 100% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 18%
(41%) 5W: 11.45 (10.85-16.55) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Xenia (3-1) 24%
(33%) 4W: 8.35 ( 7.05-13.30) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 30%
(13%) 3W: 5.20 ( 4.55- 9.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 3%) 2W: 3.20 ( 2.60- 6.40) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWL: 16.05 (15.35-18.65) 100% in, 44% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 18%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 12.90 (12.25-14.80) 92% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 18%
(37%) WWLWWL: 10.95 (10.85-14.75) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Xenia (3-1) 25%
(25%) LWLWWL: 7.75 ( 7.75-11.45) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 31%
( 4%) WWLWLL: 7.75 ( 7.05-11.60) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Withrow (4-0) 32%
( 5%) LWLLWL: 5.80 ( 5.15- 8.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Xenia (3-1) 100%
( 6%) LWLWLL: 5.15 ( 4.55- 8.40) out
( 3%) LWLLLL: 3.20 ( 2.60- 5.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 138.8, #115, D2 #33), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 136.1, #123, D2 #33), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 130.4, #154, D2 #38), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 127.2, #166, D2 #37), 22% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 132.0, #143, D2 #34), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 130.7