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Rankings
#38 of 104 in Division 2
#9 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #16 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D2 (-92 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 34-28 H #76 Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 134
08/29 W 26-22 A #214 Little Miami (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 128
09/05 W 47-6 H #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 143
09/12 L 13-6 A #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 27 (5%), perf. rating 147
09/19 H #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/26 A #213 West Clermont (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 11 (76%)
10/03 H #7 Anderson (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/10 A #75 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/17 H #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/24 A #218 Milford (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
43% (likely needs 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.60 ( 5.10-28.15) 74% in, 24% home, 3% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 17%
Lose: 7.75 ( 2.60-24.95) 18% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 21.20 (20.50-24.95) 100% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 25%
(13%) 6W: 16.05 (15.30-21.15) 100% in, 51% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 19%
(26%) 5W: 11.60 (10.80-18.50) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 23%
(28%) 4W: 8.35 ( 7.05-13.50) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 26%
(20%) 3W: 5.20 ( 4.55-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 7%) 2W: 3.25 ( 2.60- 5.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWLWWW: 21.20 (21.05-23.10) 100% home, 22% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 22%
( 7%) WWLWLW: 15.45 (15.30-18.65) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 23%
( 5%) LWLWLW: 12.25 (12.25-14.80) 89% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 26%
(15%) WWLLLW: 10.95 (10.80-13.50) 76% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 25%
(17%) LWLLLW: 7.75 ( 7.75-10.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Withrow (4-0) 27%
(10%) LWLLLL: 5.80 ( 5.15- 8.35) out
( 9%) LLLLLW: 5.20 ( 4.55- 8.95) out
( 7%) LLLLLL: 3.25 ( 2.60- 5.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 134.0, #136, D2 #38), 43% (likely needs 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 127.5, #175, D2 #43), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 124.6, #186, D2 #46), 23% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 127.1, #170, D2 #38), 23% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 123.0, #194, D2 #45), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 121.9