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Rankings
#38 of 100 in Division 2
#9 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #31 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #49 in D2 (-142 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 31-10 A #95 Archbishop McNicholas (4-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 110
08/28 L 27-24 H #113 Little Miami (3-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 131
09/04 W 43-19 A #459 Walnut Hills (0-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 30 (95%), perf. rating 124
09/11 L 45-7 H #32 Winton Woods (5-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 102
09/18 W 42-21 A #356 Loveland (2-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (81%), perf. rating 135
09/25 W 55-19 H #292 West Clermont (2-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 8 (69%), perf. rating 162
10/02 A #12 Anderson (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/09 H #90 Lebanon (5-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/16 A #100 Kings (3-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/23 H #259 Milford (1-5) D1 R4, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
15% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Lose: 8.25 ( 5.65-18.45) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), West (6-0) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 6W: 16.50 (15.75-19.05) 98% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), West (6-0) 20%
(32%) 5W: 12.05 (10.65-15.85) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Troy (5-1) 30%
(46%) 4W: 6.95 ( 6.95-12.05) out, proj. out
( 8%) 3W: 5.65 ( 5.65- 7.00) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) LWWW: 16.50 (15.75-18.45) 98% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), West (6-0) 20%
(16%) LWLW: 12.05 (12.05-14.00) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Lima Senior (5-1) 29%
(15%) LLWW: 11.35 (10.65-13.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Troy (5-1) 53%
( 2%) LWLL: 10.75 (10.10-12.05) out
( 2%) LLWL: 9.50 ( 8.80-10.80) out
(42%) LLLW: 6.95 ( 6.95- 9.60) out
( 8%) LLLL: 5.65 ( 5.65- 7.00) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 131.9, #140, D2 #38), 15% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (2-3, 124.5, #189, D2 #49), 4% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (1-3, 120.2, #217, D2 #52), 4% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 121.4, #211, D2 #51), 8% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 121.5, #211, D2 #50), 10% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 128.2, #164, D2 #46), 36% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (likely needs 7-3), 3% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 135.2, #120, D2 #37), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 140.3