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Rankings
#57 of 105 in Division 4
#14 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #76 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D4 (-63 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 51-21 A #171 Talawanda (4-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 18 (80%), perf. rating 85
08/29 L 41-13 H Lawrenceburg IN (3-1) D3
09/05 W 55-0 A #646 Woodward (Cincy) (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 30 (95%), perf. rating 113
09/12 W 20-14 H #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 25 (93%), perf. rating 97
09/19 A #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (12%)
09/26 H #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/03 A #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/10 H #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/17 H #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 A #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.95 ( 6.65-20.65) 93% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Wyoming (3-1) 19%
Lose: 9.20 ( 1.90-17.05) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Wyoming (3-1) 27%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 7W: 15.05 (14.80-18.50) 100% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Wyoming (3-1) 18%
(41%) 6W: 10.65 (10.45-15.20) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
(30%) 5W: 7.90 ( 6.80-12.70) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
(15%) 4W: 5.45 ( 4.55-10.95) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 4%) 3W: 3.65 ( 3.15- 6.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWW: 15.50 (15.40-17.05) 100% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Brookville (4-0) 15%
( 7%) WLWWWW: 15.00 (14.80-16.25) 100% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Wyoming (3-1) 20%
(38%) LLWWWW: 10.65 (10.45-12.80) 68% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
( 7%) LLLWWW: 9.20 ( 8.60-10.75) 27% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
( 7%) LLWWLW: 8.40 ( 7.85-10.80) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 29%
(15%) LLWLWW: 6.90 ( 6.80- 9.45) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wyoming (3-1) 26%
( 7%) LLLLWW: 5.45 ( 4.95- 7.20) out
( 4%) LLLLLW: 3.65 ( 3.15- 5.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 102.1, #357, D4 #57), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 107.4, #309, D4 #49), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 101.8, #348, D4 #53), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 100.0, #359, D4 #54), 47% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye, proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 121.2, #201, D4 #24), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 131.4