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Rankings
#47 of 101 in Division 4
#11 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #55 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #43 in D4 (-55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 33-6 H #113 Talawanda (3-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 16 (23%), perf. rating 94
08/28 W 27-0 H #501 Batavia (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 118
09/04 L 48-14 A Lawrenceburg IN (2-1) D4
09/11 A #414 Mariemont (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 11 (74%)
09/18 H #99 Wyoming (3-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/25 A #73 Indian Hill (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/02 H #523 Reading (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/09 A #369 Deer Park (3-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/16 A #345 Madeira (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/23 H #655 Finneytown (0-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 46 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.76 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
38% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.32 ( 2.76-22.44) 49% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 11%
Lose: 5.39 ( 0.55-18.70) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 15.98 (14.66-19.86) 100% in, 84% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Oakwood (3-0) 10%
(27%) 6W: 11.94 (10.78-16.49) 92% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 12%
(31%) 5W: 8.76 ( 7.35-13.26) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Valley View (1-2) 16%
(23%) 4W: 5.69 ( 4.63-10.54) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(12%) 3W: 3.32 ( 2.36- 7.97) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 1.91 ( 0.95- 5.09) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLWWWW: 16.28 (15.22-18.50) 100% in, 86% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Oakwood (3-0) 9%
(25%) WLLWWWW: 11.89 (10.78-14.77) 91% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 12%
(15%) WLLWWLW: 8.76 ( 7.65-11.29) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Valley View (1-2) 15%
(10%) WLLWLWW: 8.36 ( 7.35-11.34) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Valley View (1-2) 20%
( 5%) LLLWWLW: 6.04 ( 4.98- 8.72) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), London (2-1) 33%
(12%) WLLWLLW: 5.64 ( 4.63- 8.57) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), London (2-1) 40%
( 9%) LLLWLLW: 3.27 ( 2.36- 6.00) out
( 2%) LLLLLLW: 1.46 ( 0.95- 3.58) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 105.7, #326, D4 #47), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 105.9, #319, D4 #45), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 97.2, #388, D4 #59), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 104.1, #325, D4 #46), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 95.7