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Rankings
#7 of 105 in Division 4
#2 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #77 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D4 (+330 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 30-7 H #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 153
08/29 W 37-7 A #383 Northwest (Cincy) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 145
09/05 W 51-14 A #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 156
09/12 W 28-7 A #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 19 (87%), perf. rating 152
09/19 H #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/26 A #357 Taylor (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/03 H #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 A #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/17 A #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/24 H #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 41 (99%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
27.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, likely bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 27.15 (16.95-30.50) 100% in, 99% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#10), bye 99%
Lose: 24.22 (19.35-27.25) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 97%
Based on eventual number of wins
(91%) 10W: 27.20 (24.00-30.50) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) 9W: 24.40 (20.80-28.55) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 98%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(91%) WWWWWW: 27.20 (24.00-30.50) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWWWL: 25.80 (22.90-27.55) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWLWW: 24.90 (22.55-27.55) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 1%) LWWWWW: 24.42 (21.55-27.25) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 23.90 (20.80-25.85) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 23.45 (20.95-25.50) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 95%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 144.7, #80, D4 #7), appears locked in and likely home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 141.6, #93, D4 #10), appears locked in and likely home, 93% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 135.9, #122, D4 #14), likely in and likely home, 73% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 131.2, #143, D4 #17), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 73% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 129.5, #156, D4 #13), 89% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 51% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 130.3