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Rankings
#32 of 105 in Division 4
#8 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #85 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D4 (+108 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 24-21 A #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 115
08/29 W 49-16 A #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 152
09/05 W 34-27 H #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 102
09/12 L 28-7 H #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (13%), perf. rating 111
09/19 H #357 Taylor (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 19 (88%)
09/26 A #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 H #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 A #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/17 A #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 H #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
20.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 92% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.45 ( 9.30-23.90) 99% in, 96% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 19%
Lose: 16.80 ( 7.55-19.95) 97% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Taylor (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(71%) 9W: 20.55 (18.60-23.90) 100% in, 99% home, 24% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 24%
(22%) 8W: 17.65 (14.80-21.70) 100% in, 88% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 15%
( 6%) 7W: 14.80 (12.00-19.65) 99% in, 39% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Brookville (4-0) 15%
( 1%) 6W: 12.10 ( 9.60-15.10) 88% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(71%) WWWWWW: 20.55 (18.60-23.90) 100% in, 99% home, 24% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 24%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 18.70 (16.70-21.70) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Oakwood (4-0) 14%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 18.25 (16.30-21.40) 100% in, 95% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Oakwood (4-0) 18%
( 3%) WLWWWW: 17.70 (15.60-20.95) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 17%
( 7%) LWWWWW: 17.55 (15.30-19.95) 100% in, 87% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Taylor (2-2) 21%
( 6%) WWWWWL: 16.75 (14.80-20.00) 100% in, 80% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 18%
( 1%) LWWWWL: 13.50 (12.00-15.85) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Brookville (4-0) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 119.1, #221, D4 #32), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 120.7, #215, D4 #28), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 130.8, #151, D4 #19), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 7-3), 56% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 124.7, #178, D4 #21), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 90% home (maybe if 6-4), 60% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 126.8, #168, D4 #15), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 49% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 127.1