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Rankings
#17 of 106 in Division 5
#5 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #20 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D5 (+150 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 62-0 H #593 Coventry (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 44 (98%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 48-13 A #607 Sandy Valley (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 113
09/05 W 45-7 H #476 Firestone (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 137
09/12 W 35-17 H #294 Canton South (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 135
09/19 H #143 Kenston (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/26 H #359 Tuslaw (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 A #311 Fairless (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/10 A #128 Triway (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/17 A #174 Orrville (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/24 H #147 Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.20 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#8 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
86% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.89 ( 6.84-27.27) 99% in, 84% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 44%
Lose: 11.93 ( 3.41-23.09) 78% in, 35% home, 7% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Liberty (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 10W: 24.09 (20.81-27.27) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(14%) 9W: 20.31 (16.87-23.94) 100% home, 74% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 74%
(22%) 8W: 16.73 (13.09-20.67) 100% in, 96% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 14%
(25%) 7W: 13.20 (10.27-16.83) 99% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Liberty (3-1) 17%
(22%) 6W: 10.07 ( 7.39-15.07) 78% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
( 9%) 5W: 7.50 ( 5.18-11.34) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 4W: 5.46 ( 3.41- 8.11) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 24.09 (20.81-27.27) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 6%) WWWLWW: 19.90 (16.87-23.19) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 69%
( 6%) LWWLWW: 16.58 (14.35-19.25) 100% in, 95% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Liberty (3-1) 13%
( 7%) LWWLWL: 13.35 (11.33-16.43) 99% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 17%
( 7%) LWWLLW: 12.89 (10.82-15.42) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
(16%) LWWLLL: 9.92 ( 7.39-13.00) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Liberty (3-1) 14%
( 6%) LWLLLL: 7.30 ( 5.18-10.78) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edison (Richmond) (3-1) 15%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 5.46 ( 3.41- 8.11) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cardinal Mooney (2-2) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 126.3, #177, D5 #17), 86% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 125.4, #186, D5 #18), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 122.3, #204, D5 #21), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 120.3, #206, D5 #19), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 120.9, #204, D5 #19), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 131.5