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Rankings
#45 of 105 in Division 4
#10 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #6 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D4 (-212 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-16 H #465 Field (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 120
08/29 L 42-14 H #70 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 13 (26%), perf. rating 103
09/05 L 27-20 H #211 East (Akron) (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 108
09/12 L 35-17 A #177 Manchester (Akron) (4-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 102
09/19 A #147 Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/26 H #174 Orrville (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/03 A #128 Triway (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/10 H #311 Fairless (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/17 A #359 Tuslaw (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/24 A #119 West Holmes (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.99 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.99 ( 2.89-22.38) 27% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Johnstown (2-2) 12%
Lose: 4.83 ( 0.50-18.56) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 16.42 (14.07-18.56) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Johnstown (2-2) 18%
( 4%) 5W: 12.66 (10.16-15.92) 64% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 16%
(15%) 4W: 8.99 ( 6.95-12.46) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(32%) 3W: 5.99 ( 4.05-10.53) out, proj. out
(30%) 2W: 3.71 ( 1.77- 7.07) out, proj. out
(18%) 1W: 2.03 ( 0.50- 3.56) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLWWW: 12.86 (10.72-15.92) 73% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 17%
( 2%) LLLWWW: 9.45 ( 7.72-11.95) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 27%
( 2%) LLWWWL: 9.30 ( 7.82-11.19) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 33%
( 7%) LWLWWL: 8.94 ( 7.00-12.26) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), West Holmes (3-1) 100%
(24%) LLLWWL: 5.58 ( 4.05- 7.93) out
(12%) LLLWLL: 3.86 ( 2.33- 6.77) out
(15%) LLLLWL: 3.30 ( 1.77- 5.18) out
(18%) LLLLLL: 2.03 ( 0.50- 3.56) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 109.7, #294, D4 #45), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 113.3, #266, D4 #43), 15% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 115.7, #250, D4 #35), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 123.6, #184, D4 #22), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 116.6, #231, D4 #30), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 108.5