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Rankings
#86 of 105 in Division 4
#25 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #75 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #87 in D4 (-592 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-21 H #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 78
08/29 L 49-13 A #251 Zane Trace (3-1) D5 R19, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 64
09/05 L 49-6 A #164 Unioto (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 69
09/12 L 25-3 H #376 Valley (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 64
09/19 H #477 Portsmouth West (1-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 A #676 Oak Hill (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/03 H #598 Minford (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/10 A #94 Wheelersburg (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 44 (1%)
10/17 H #544 Northwest (McDermott) (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/24 A #560 Worthington Christian (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 6 (65%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.50 ( 1.75-13.40) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 4.00 ( 0.00-11.25) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 5W: 8.15 ( 6.90-11.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(31%) 4W: 6.10 ( 4.25-10.00) out, proj. out
(23%) 3W: 4.00 ( 2.55- 7.45) out, proj. out
(14%) 2W: 2.20 ( 1.25- 4.95) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 0.45 ( 0.45- 2.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWWLWW: 7.95 ( 6.90- 9.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 50%
( 7%) WWWLWL: 6.70 ( 6.10- 8.45) out
(16%) LWWLWW: 6.05 ( 4.80- 7.85) out
( 6%) WWWLLW: 5.15 ( 4.25- 6.80) out
( 8%) LWWLWL: 4.50 ( 4.00- 6.25) out
( 7%) LWWLLW: 3.35 ( 2.55- 4.70) out
( 9%) LWWLLL: 1.75 ( 1.75- 3.50) out
( 4%) LWLLLL: 0.45 ( 0.45- 1.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 78.6, #511, D4 #86), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 80.4, #497, D4 #84), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 88.8, #444, D4 #74), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 94.1, #411, D4 #69), 17% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 101.0, #349, D4 #57), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 98.6