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Rankings
#67 of 101 in Division 4
#20 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #56 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D4 (-204 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 48-14 A #291 Miami Trace (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 61
08/28 L 27-7 H #284 Zane Trace (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 80
09/04 W 31-27 H #198 Unioto (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 41 (1%), perf. rating 127
09/11 A #389 Valley (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 4 (41%)
09/18 A #245 Portsmouth West (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/25 H #692 Oak Hill (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/02 A #598 Minford (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/09 H #156 Wheelersburg (1-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/16 A #646 Northwest (McDermott) (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/23 H #336 Worthington Christian (3-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
10.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
24% (likely needs 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.20 ( 7.65-22.20) 50% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Union Local (3-0) 10%
Lose: 7.35 ( 3.65-18.45) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Johnstown (2-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 20.70 (19.00-22.20) 100% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 43%
( 6%) 7W: 17.35 (14.90-20.10) 99% in, 69% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Philo (2-1) 11%
(18%) 6W: 14.05 (11.55-17.90) 80% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Johnstown (2-1) 12%
(33%) 5W: 10.55 ( 8.40-14.60) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Johnstown (2-1) 18%
(37%) 4W: 7.35 ( 5.65-13.30) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 5%) 3W: 5.70 ( 4.45- 8.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 20.70 (19.00-22.20) 100% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 43%
( 3%) WWWWLWW: 17.45 (15.30-20.10) 99% in, 77% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-out), Philo (2-1) 11%
( 2%) WLWWWWW: 16.65 (14.90-18.50) 99% in, 58% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Philo (2-1) 11%
(12%) WLWWLWW: 14.05 (11.55-15.85) 81% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Union Local (3-0) 12%
(13%) LLWWLWW: 10.85 ( 8.40-12.70) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Johnstown (2-1) 18%
(17%) WLWWLWL: 10.55 ( 8.95-11.85) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Johnstown (2-1) 17%
(34%) LLWWLWL: 7.35 ( 5.65- 8.70) out
( 3%) LLWLLWL: 5.70 ( 4.45- 7.00) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 94.6, #405, D4 #67), 24% (likely needs 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 73.9, #536, D4 #82), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 76.9, #511, D4 #82), 6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 78.7, #505, D4 #80), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 72.7