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Region 27 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#98 of 107 in Division 7
#23 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #103 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D7 (-473 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-14 H #678 New London (2-2) D6 R21, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 11
08/28 L 46-6 A #610 Conotton Valley (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 44 (1%), perf. rating 1
09/05 W 33-0 A #706 Federal Hocking (1-3) D7 R27, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 46
09/12 W 33-20 H #699 Tuscarawas Cent. Cath. (1-3) D7 R27, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 34
09/19 H #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 A #491 Grove City Christian (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/04 A #652 Fisher Catholic (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/10 H #647 Fairfield Christian (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/17 A #650 Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/24 H #587 Miller (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.81 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.94 ( 3.52-12.55) 9% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Lose: 1.81 ( 1.81-12.75) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 7.46 ( 6.40- 8.82) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 5%) 4W: 5.39 ( 4.48- 7.51) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(22%) 3W: 3.42 ( 3.02- 5.49) out, proj. out
(71%) 2W: 1.81 ( 1.81- 3.23) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWWLL: 5.19 ( 4.48- 6.70) out
( 2%) LLLLLW: 4.03 ( 3.32- 5.49) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 3.88 ( 3.52- 5.44) out
( 5%) LLWLLL: 3.63 ( 3.27- 5.09) out
( 5%) LLLLWL: 3.37 ( 3.02- 4.89) out
( 6%) LLLWLL: 3.02 ( 3.02- 4.79) out
(71%) LLLLLL: 1.81 ( 1.81- 3.23) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 23.2, #693, D7 #98), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 16.4, #699, D7 #102), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 3.2, #705, D7 #104), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 2.1, #706, D7 #105), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 0-10
Week 0 (0-0, 3.0, #706, D7 #105), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 9.1