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Rankings
#74 of 107 in Division 7
#17 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #96 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #82 in D7 (-467 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 26-24 H #590 Notre Dame (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 58
08/29 W 27-14 H #676 Oak Hill (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 52
09/05 W 41-13 A #696 East Clinton (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 62
09/12 L 20-13 H #652 Fisher Catholic (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 19 (87%), perf. rating 33
09/19 H #480 Symmes Valley (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 A #650 Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/03 H #587 Miller (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/10 A #693 Millersport (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/17 H #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/24 A #491 Grove City Christian (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.48 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
16% (likely needs 6-4), 4% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.57 ( 4.38-17.04) 70% in, 33% home, 8% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Trimble (3-1) 11%
Lose: 4.33 ( 0.85-13.56) 13% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 12.55 (11.13-14.47) 100% in, 93% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 12%
(11%) 6W: 9.52 ( 8.11-12.35) 91% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 13%
(22%) 5W: 6.90 ( 5.69- 9.93) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Trimble (3-1) 18%
(31%) 4W: 4.48 ( 3.47- 7.51) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(28%) 3W: 2.26 ( 1.91- 5.09) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 1.20 ( 0.85- 2.52) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLWWL: 10.03 ( 8.71-11.79) 96% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 15%
( 7%) LWWWWL: 9.27 ( 8.11-11.39) 89% in, 12% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 13%
(12%) LWLWWL: 6.70 ( 5.89- 8.72) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Trimble (3-1) 20%
( 4%) LWWWLL: 6.55 ( 5.69- 8.16) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 18%
(11%) LLLWWL: 4.73 ( 3.97- 7.21) out
(15%) LWLWLL: 4.18 ( 3.47- 5.94) out
(25%) LLLWLL: 2.26 ( 1.91- 4.03) out
( 6%) LLLLLL: 1.20 ( 0.85- 2.52) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 48.5, #647, D7 #74), 16% (likely needs 6-4), 4% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 56.8, #617, D7 #67), 52% (likely needs 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 50.2, #640, D7 #74), 30% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 47.0, #649, D7 #74), 30% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 46.5, #657, D7 #79), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 43.4