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Rankings
#10 of 107 in Division 6
#3 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #3 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #4 in D6 (+584 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 21-18 H #131 Harvest Prep (0-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 20 (18%), perf. rating 136
08/28 W 20-10 A #192 Cinc. Hills Christian (2-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 140
09/04 L 34-21 A #122 St Henry (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 6 (63%), perf. rating 118
09/11 H #30 Marion Local (3-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 28 (5%)
09/18 A #325 Fort Recovery (1-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/25 H #136 New Bremen (2-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/02 H #71 Coldwater (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/09 A #342 St Johns (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 A #427 Parkway (1-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/23 H #143 Anna (2-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
13.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.75 (10.25-25.05) 100% in, 94% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#12), bye 52%
Lose: 13.10 ( 5.00-21.85) 90% in, 51% home, 6% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 22.35 (19.75-25.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(11%) 8W: 18.70 (15.50-22.65) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 54%
(24%) 7W: 15.65 (12.00-19.95) 100% in, 92% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Valley (3-0) 14%
(27%) 6W: 13.30 ( 9.85-17.00) 99% in, 57% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 14%
(22%) 5W: 11.10 ( 7.95-15.25) 90% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 13%
(11%) 4W: 9.50 ( 6.35-12.10) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 17%
( 3%) 3W: 8.25 ( 5.50-10.20) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 23%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 22.35 (19.75-25.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(10%) LWWWWWW: 18.65 (15.50-21.85) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 53%
( 4%) LWLWWWW: 16.05 (12.80-18.90) 100% in, 95% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Valley (3-0) 14%
(14%) LWWLWWW: 15.25 (12.00-18.85) 100% in, 91% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Valley (3-0) 15%
(10%) LWWLWWL: 13.28 (10.25-15.65) 99% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 14%
(10%) LWLLWWW: 13.00 ( 9.85-15.65) 99% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Valley (3-0) 14%
(14%) LWLLWWL: 10.95 ( 7.95-13.35) 87% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 15%
( 2%) LLLLLWL: 7.95 ( 5.75- 9.95) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 24%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 129.2, #152, D6 #10), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 135.4, #119, D6 #7), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 133.1, #133, D6 #10), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 124.9, #174, D6 #10), 39% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 125.8