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Rankings
#12 of 106 in Division 5
#1 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #4 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #12 in D5 (+270 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 27-6 A #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 29 (91%), perf. rating 114
08/29 W 35-21 H #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 141
09/05 W 35-0 A #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 152
09/12 L 26-25 H #139 New Bremen (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 130
09/19 H #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 42 (99%)
09/26 A #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/03 A #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/10 H #206 Minster (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/17 A #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/24 H #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
84% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.40 ( 5.20-23.05) 85% in, 54% home, 11% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 13%
Lose: 9.00 ( 5.25-18.90) 58% in, 24% home, 3% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(16%) 8W: 17.40 (14.65-20.10) 100% in, 99% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 50%
(26%) 7W: 14.35 (11.60-18.90) 100% in, 93% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), Greeneview (2-2) 13%
(28%) 6W: 11.75 ( 9.10-16.45) 98% in, 40% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Greeneview (2-2) 15%
(19%) 5W: 9.30 ( 6.50-12.40) 64% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
( 9%) 4W: 7.15 ( 5.20- 9.95) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WLWWWW: 17.35 (14.65-19.80) 100% in, 99% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 49%
( 6%) WLWWLW: 14.85 (12.55-16.85) 100% in, 96% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Arcanum (4-0) 12%
( 4%) WLLWWW: 14.50 (12.15-16.60) 100% in, 95% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Arcanum (4-0) 13%
(14%) WLWWWL: 14.05 (11.60-16.90) 100% in, 90% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Purcell Marian (2-2) 14%
(14%) WLWWLL: 11.60 ( 9.20-14.60) 98% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
( 6%) WLLWWL: 11.40 ( 9.10-13.75) 97% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Greeneview (2-2) 15%
(11%) WLLWLL: 9.05 ( 6.50-11.45) 55% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 18%
( 8%) WLLLLL: 7.10 ( 5.20- 9.05) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 31%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 132.9, #146, D5 #12), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 134.9, #128, D5 #11), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 128.7, #164, D5 #16), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 130.4, #148, D5 #13), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 131.4, #145, D5 #11), 70% (bubble if 4-6), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 6-4
Last season 124.1