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Rankings
#46 of 106 in Division 5
#12 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #90 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D5 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 33-0 A #622 Paint Valley (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 108
08/29 W 47-0 H #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 63
09/05 W 24-7 H #452 Piketon (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 5 (39%), perf. rating 109
09/12 W 25-3 A #511 Waverly (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 17 (84%), perf. rating 113
09/19 H #94 Wheelersburg (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 32 (2%)
09/26 A #544 Northwest (McDermott) (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/03 H #477 Portsmouth West (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/10 H #676 Oak Hill (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/17 A #234 Grandview Heights (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/24 A #598 Minford (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
14.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
89% (bubble if 7-3), 23% home (likely needs 9-1), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.65 (12.60-25.00) 100% in, 95% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 37%
Lose: 13.90 ( 5.55-21.55) 89% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 9W: 18.70 (16.05-21.60) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Union Local (2-2) 14%
(66%) 8W: 14.00 (11.30-18.70) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 20%
(19%) 7W: 11.40 ( 8.30-15.70) 61% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 22%
( 3%) 6W: 9.05 ( 6.85-13.20) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(10%) LWWWWW: 18.85 (16.05-21.55) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Union Local (2-2) 14%
( 1%) WWWWLW: 18.30 (16.25-20.10) 100% in, 97% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) 15%
(65%) LWWWLW: 14.00 (11.30-17.30) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 20%
( 3%) LWWWLL: 12.15 (10.05-14.25) 73% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 21%
(10%) LWLWLW: 11.40 ( 9.25-13.95) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 22%
( 4%) LLWWLW: 10.80 ( 8.30-13.00) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 26%
( 2%) LLLWLW: 8.60 ( 6.85-10.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Harvest Prep (2-2) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 99.2, #376, D5 #46), 89% (bubble if 7-3), 23% home (likely needs 9-1), 2% bye, proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 99.5, #373, D5 #46), 81% (bubble if 7-3), 39% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 95.6, #400, D5 #52), 43% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 102.2, #346, D5 #43), 56% (bubble if 7-3), 30% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 82.7, #501, D5 #72), 26% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 86.5