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Rankings
#64 of 103 in Division 7
#20 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #27 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D7 (-310 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-6 H #669 Ridgemont (1-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 64
08/28 L 27-20 H #605 Bucyrus (2-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 45
09/04 L 51-0 H #181 Leipsic (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 60
09/11 A #352 Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 37 (1%)
09/18 A #302 McComb (2-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 40 (1%)
09/25 H #579 Arcadia (1-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/02 A #553 Arlington (0-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/09 A #294 Van Buren (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/16 H #438 Ada (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/23 H #513 Elmwood (1-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.35 ( 2.15-11.65) 25% in, 3% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 1.40 ( 0.70-11.10) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Montpelier (3-0) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 7.20 ( 5.85-11.10) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Montpelier (3-0) 21%
( 4%) 4W: 5.00 ( 3.60- 8.15) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), Montpelier (3-0) 21%
(13%) 3W: 3.30 ( 2.10- 7.05) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(31%) 2W: 2.10 ( 1.05- 5.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(51%) 1W: 1.05 ( 0.70- 2.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWWLWW: 6.95 ( 5.85- 8.40) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Mohawk (2-1) 19%
( 2%) LLWWLLW: 4.65 ( 3.60- 6.15) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), North Baltimore (3-0) 26%
( 4%) LLWLLLW: 3.30 ( 2.55- 5.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), McComb (2-1) 33%
( 4%) LLWWLLL: 2.80 ( 2.10- 4.35) out
( 6%) LLLLLLW: 2.55 ( 1.50- 4.70) out
(17%) LLWLLLL: 1.75 ( 1.40- 3.95) out
( 5%) LLLWLLL: 1.75 ( 1.05- 3.90) out
(51%) LLLLLLL: 1.05 ( 0.70- 2.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 53.6, #618, D7 #64), 2% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (1-1, 50.2, #633, D7 #67), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (1-0, 68.2, #571, D7 #50), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 49.8, #641, D7 #75), 6% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 45.7