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Rankings
#49 of 107 in Division 6
#16 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #46 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D6 (-292 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 37-6 H #615 Fostoria (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 34-28 A #334 Leipsic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 97
09/05 L 42-7 A #303 Pandora-Gilboa (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 15 (20%), perf. rating 59
09/12 L 28-10 A #312 Arlington (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 24 (8%), perf. rating 83
09/19 A #641 Riverdale (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 28 (96%)
09/26 H #400 McComb (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/03 H #609 Arcadia (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/10 H #413 Ada (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #619 Elmwood (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/24 H #57 Liberty-Benton (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 42 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.60 ( 0.85-12.85) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 2.40 ( 0.45- 7.50) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 6W: 7.50 ( 7.05-10.20) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(37%) 5W: 5.05 ( 4.50- 8.45) out, proj. out
(37%) 4W: 2.75 ( 2.75- 7.00) out, proj. out
( 9%) 3W: 1.95 ( 1.65- 4.95) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 1.30 ( 0.85- 2.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWWWL: 7.50 ( 7.05- 9.80) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Archbold (3-1) 20%
(20%) WLWWWL: 5.30 ( 4.90- 7.15) out
(15%) WWWLWL: 4.95 ( 4.50- 6.60) out
( 1%) WLWWLL: 4.50 ( 4.10- 5.90) out
(33%) WLWLWL: 2.75 ( 2.75- 5.05) out
( 2%) LLWLWL: 2.35 ( 1.95- 3.65) out
( 4%) WLWLLL: 1.95 ( 1.95- 3.45) out
( 2%) WLLLWL: 1.65 ( 1.65- 3.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 86.1, #449, D6 #49), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 86.0, #455, D6 #50), 4% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 95.7, #397, D6 #39), 25% (likely needs 7-3), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 95.5, #397, D6 #37), 28% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye, proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 87.0, #473, D6 #49), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 92.2