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Rankings
#10 of 104 in Division 7
#4 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #27 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #13 in D7 (+235 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 42-12 A #68 Columbus Grove (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 26 (12%), perf. rating 104
08/28 W 37-19 A #504 Elmwood (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 107
09/04 A #344 Van Buren (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 7 (65%)
09/11 H #633 Riverdale (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 43 (99%)
09/18 A #152 Leipsic (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 20 (11%)
09/25 H #617 Toledo Christian (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/02 A #274 McComb (1-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/09 H #592 Arcadia (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/16 H #577 Arlington (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/23 H #436 Ada (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
3.63 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.16 ( 1.98- 5.12) 99% in, 90% home, 28% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 28%
Lose: 2.96 ( 1.36- 4.44) 97% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Wayne Trace (1-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 4.97 ( 4.86- 5.12) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
(28%) 8W: 4.27 ( 4.12- 4.59) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 42%
(34%) 7W: 3.63 ( 3.42- 3.94) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Wayne Trace (1-1) 17%
(23%) 6W: 2.99 ( 2.79- 3.31) 100% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Montpelier (2-0) 15%
( 7%) 5W: 2.38 ( 2.26- 2.76) 94% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Mohawk (1-1) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWWWW: 4.97 ( 4.86- 5.12) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 3%) WWWWLWWW: 4.33 ( 4.19- 4.49) 100% in, 99% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 26%
(23%) WWLWWWWW: 4.26 ( 4.12- 4.46) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 43%
(24%) WWLWLWWW: 3.63 ( 3.51- 3.83) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Wayne Trace (1-1) 17%
( 6%) LWLWWWWW: 3.56 ( 3.42- 3.75) 100% in, 90% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Wayne Trace (1-1) 17%
( 4%) WWLWLWWL: 3.00 ( 2.87- 3.25) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Montpelier (2-0) 22%
(16%) LWLWLWWW: 2.96 ( 2.84- 3.16) 100% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Montpelier (2-0) 15%
( 5%) LWLWLWWL: 2.35 ( 2.26- 2.56) 94% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Montpelier (2-0) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 111.1, #285, D7 #10), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 80% home (maybe if 6-4), 33% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 112.9, #267, D7 #9), 96% (bubble if 4-6), 83% home (maybe if 6-4), 44% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 116.2, #228, D7 #5), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 78% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 117.3