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Rankings
#7 of 107 in Division 6
#2 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #4 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #10 in D6 (+317 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 55-0 H #543 Spencerville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 39 (96%), perf. rating 133
08/29 W 34-26 A #372 Fort Loramie (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 114
09/05 L 24-14 A #206 Minster (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 108
09/12 W 14-7 H #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 140
09/19 A #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 18 (13%)
09/26 H #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 H #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/10 A #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/17 H #327 Fort Recovery (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/24 A #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
8.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.65 ( 7.50-19.45) 100% in, 94% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 39%
Lose: 8.85 ( 4.60-16.35) 97% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 8W: 14.55 (12.45-17.75) 100% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 65%
(33%) 7W: 11.15 ( 9.40-15.30) 100% in, 89% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Perry (Lima) (2-2) 16%
(46%) 6W: 8.55 ( 6.70-13.40) 99% in, 24% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 18%
(11%) 5W: 6.70 ( 4.65-10.35) 83% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 18%
( 1%) 4W: 5.75 ( 4.65- 7.90) 49% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWLWW: 14.35 (12.45-16.85) 100% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 63%
( 5%) WWLLWW: 11.40 ( 9.40-14.05) 100% in, 92% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Perry (Lima) (2-2) 17%
(27%) LWWLWW: 11.15 ( 9.65-13.70) 100% in, 88% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Perry (Lima) (2-2) 16%
( 2%) LWWLLW: 9.10 ( 7.90-10.80) 100% in, 33% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Dayton Christian (3-1) 21%
(43%) LWLLWW: 8.55 ( 6.70-10.75) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 18%
( 3%) LLLLWW: 7.50 ( 6.00- 9.30) 97% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 19%
( 8%) LWLLLW: 6.50 ( 4.65- 8.80) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 126.0, #180, D6 #7), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 122.1, #201, D6 #10), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 134.6, #127, D6 #5), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 74% home (maybe if 6-4), 33% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 139.3, #111, D6 #3), 88% (bubble if 4-6), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 137.7, #112, D6 #4), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 140.2