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Rankings
#79 of 107 in Division 6
#23 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #44 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D6 (-360 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-20 A #611 Cardington-Lincoln (0-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 79
08/28 L 34-0 A #333 East Knox (3-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 56
09/04 L 48-7 A #370 Upper Sandusky (2-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 27 (7%), perf. rating 40
09/11 H #601 Buckeye Central (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 10 (72%)
09/18 A #95 Hopewell-Loudon (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 48 (1%)
09/25 H #330 Mohawk (2-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/02 H #269 Colonel Crawford (1-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/09 A #605 Bucyrus (2-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/16 A #606 Willard (2-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/23 H #481 Lucas (1-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 14 (18%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.40 ( 1.10-15.35) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Lose: 1.95 ( 0.40-11.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 8.85 ( 7.25-12.65) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(15%) 5W: 6.45 ( 5.50- 9.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(30%) 4W: 4.65 ( 3.70- 8.65) out, proj. out
(26%) 3W: 3.10 ( 2.15- 6.75) out, proj. out
(17%) 2W: 1.65 ( 1.10- 4.80) out, proj. out
( 9%) 1W: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWLWWW: 8.90 ( 7.55-10.65) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) 27%
(13%) WLLLWWW: 6.25 ( 5.65- 8.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Delta (3-0) 100%
(22%) WLLLWWL: 4.65 ( 4.25- 6.80) out
( 6%) LLLLWWL: 3.20 ( 2.85- 5.25) out
( 9%) WLLLLWL: 3.10 ( 2.70- 5.50) out
( 9%) WLLLWLL: 3.05 ( 2.65- 5.75) out
( 8%) WLLLLLL: 1.50 ( 1.10- 4.25) out
( 9%) LLLLLLL: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.95) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 66.3, #574, D6 #79), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 64.1, #590, D6 #85), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 82.3, #480, D6 #61), 20% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 76.0, #523, D6 #67), 15% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 76.9