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Rankings
#5 of 107 in Division 7
#4 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #2 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D7 (+528 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 22-14 H #372 Fort Loramie (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 34 (94%), perf. rating 110
08/29 L 48-20 H #158 Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 87
09/05 W 24-14 H #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 139
09/12 W 49-20 A #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 118
09/19 A #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/26 H #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/03 H #139 New Bremen (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/10 A #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/17 H #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/24 A #327 Fort Recovery (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 14 (82%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
69% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.60 ( 5.50-22.45) 97% in, 49% home, 14% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 15%
Lose: 6.95 ( 3.05-20.45) 62% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 18.20 (16.70-20.45) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 6%) 7W: 14.95 (13.15-18.20) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 30%
(13%) 6W: 12.00 (10.25-15.05) 100% in, 68% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Notre Dame (4-0) 19%
(24%) 5W: 9.30 ( 7.10-12.15) 99% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 16%
(37%) 4W: 6.60 ( 4.75- 9.15) 61% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
(17%) 3W: 4.55 ( 3.05- 6.85) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWLW: 18.15 (16.70-19.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#2-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) LLWWLW: 12.15 (10.40-14.10) 100% in, 79% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Notre Dame (4-0) 24%
( 3%) WLWLLW: 11.75 (10.25-13.30) 100% in, 68% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), New Bremen (4-0) 24%
( 8%) LLWLLW: 9.35 ( 7.80-11.60) 99% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), New Bremen (4-0) 15%
( 6%) LLLWLW: 9.20 ( 8.00-10.95) 98% in, 3% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 20%
( 5%) WLLLLW: 8.65 ( 7.10-10.60) 98% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
(32%) LLLLLW: 6.60 ( 4.75- 8.20) 60% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
(17%) LLLLLL: 4.55 ( 3.05- 6.85) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lehman Catholic (4-0) 24%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 121.2, #206, D7 #5), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 121.7, #205, D7 #6), 68% (bubble if 4-6), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 121.1, #214, D7 #8), 51% (bubble if 4-6), 20% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 139.5, #106, D7 #3), 93% (bubble if 3-7), 77% home (maybe if 5-5), 43% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 149.5, #57, D7 #2), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 55% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 153.9