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Rankings
#22 of 107 in Division 7
#8 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #3 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D7 (-18 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 56-35 A #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 18 (80%), perf. rating 87
08/30 L 28-7 H #168 Lima Central Catholic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 19 (17%), perf. rating 95
09/05 L 35-0 H #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 26 (7%), perf. rating 79
09/12 L 61-0 A #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 47 (1%), perf. rating 107
09/20 H #327 Fort Recovery (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/03 A #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/10 H #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/17 H #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 A #139 New Bremen (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.10 ( 1.30-11.55) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 0.40 ( 0.00- 7.50) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 3W: 4.50 ( 3.75- 6.55) out, proj. out
(33%) 2W: 2.10 ( 2.05- 5.95) out, proj. out
(55%) 1W: 0.40 ( 0.40- 3.60) out, proj. out
( 5%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLLWW: 4.80 ( 4.40- 5.95) out
( 2%) WWLLWL: 4.40 ( 4.35- 5.25) out
( 1%) WLWLWL: 4.10 ( 3.75- 5.35) out
( 2%) LWLLWL: 2.70 ( 2.35- 3.50) out
( 2%) LLWLWL: 2.40 ( 2.05- 3.60) out
(27%) WLLLWL: 2.10 ( 2.05- 3.30) out
(53%) LLLLWL: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.25) out
( 5%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 97.5, #389, D7 #22), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 96.3, #393, D7 #25), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 97.0, #383, D7 #23), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 97.2, #379, D7 #25), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 113.8, #253, D7 #12), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 114.6