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Rankings
#12 of 104 in Division 7
#5 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #4 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D7 (+160 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 40-6 H #531 Lehman Catholic (0-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 123
08/29 L 41-0 A #61 Lima Central Catholic (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 89
09/04 A #31 Marion Local (2-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 42 (1%)
09/11 H #368 Fort Recovery (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 8 (68%)
09/18 A #113 New Bremen (2-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 28 (4%)
09/25 H #129 Minster (2-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/02 A #420 Parkway (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/09 H #119 Versailles (2-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/16 A #173 Anna (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/23 H #167 St Henry (0-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 19 (11%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.38 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
17% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home
Depending on the next game
Lose: 1.38 ( 0.35- 4.36) 16% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Mohawk (1-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 3.00 ( 2.81- 3.39) 100% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Montpelier (2-0) 18%
( 9%) 5W: 2.44 ( 2.22- 2.72) 80% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Edon (2-0) 16%
(20%) 4W: 1.88 ( 1.68- 2.28) 24% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edon (2-0) 21%
(33%) 3W: 1.38 ( 1.16- 1.77) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(23%) 2W: 0.90 ( 0.76- 1.30) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 0.45 ( 0.35- 0.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWLLWWLL: 1.95 ( 1.80- 2.19) 32% in, proj. out (#11-out), Mohawk (1-1) 20%
( 4%) LWLLWLWL: 1.89 ( 1.75- 2.10) 21% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edon (2-0) 33%
( 2%) LWLWWLLL: 1.87 ( 1.74- 2.13) 27% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edon (2-0) 25%
( 7%) LWLLWLLW: 1.82 ( 1.68- 2.10) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edon (2-0) 21%
(26%) LWLLWLLL: 1.36 ( 1.24- 1.58) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Edon (2-0) 50%
(12%) LLLLWLLL: 0.91 ( 0.80- 1.10) out
( 9%) LWLLLLLL: 0.89 ( 0.76- 1.10) out
(10%) LLLLLLLL: 0.45 ( 0.35- 0.69) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 105.9, #321, D7 #12), 23% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 114.3, #256, D7 #8), 46% (bubble if 4-6), 20% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 95.3, #405, D7 #22), 18% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 89.6