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Rankings
#5 of 105 in Division 5
#2 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #3 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #2 in D5 (+770 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 37-21 H #121 Valley View (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 156
08/28 W 14-6 A #230 Clinton-Massie (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 133
09/04 W 35-9 A #285 Fort Recovery (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 35 (97%), perf. rating 152
09/11 W 37-22 H #144 New Bremen (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 151
09/18 A #117 Minster (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (73%)
09/25 H #437 Parkway (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/02 A #150 Versailles (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/09 H #263 Anna (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/16 A #73 St Henry (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/23 H #29 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 13 (20%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
20.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 56% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.25 (12.65-28.30) 100% in, 98% home, 70% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#12), bye 70%
Lose: 17.55 ( 9.85-25.15) 98% in, 72% home, 18% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 10W: 26.60 (23.30-28.30) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(30%) 9W: 23.10 (19.00-26.50) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 93%
(31%) 8W: 20.25 (16.25-24.25) 100% in, 99% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 45%
(18%) 7W: 17.40 (13.25-21.30) 100% in, 83% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Galion (2-2) 13%
( 7%) 6W: 14.55 (11.05-18.05) 97% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Margaretta (3-1) 12%
( 1%) 5W: 12.65 (10.10-15.80) 74% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Port Clinton (4-0) 10%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWW: 26.60 (23.30-28.30) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 5%) WWWWLW: 23.80 (20.35-26.25) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 97%
(22%) WWWWWL: 22.95 (19.00-25.20) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 92%
(20%) WWWWLL: 20.30 (16.25-22.80) 100% in, 99% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 46%
( 6%) LWWWWL: 19.80 (16.50-22.15) 100% in, 99% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 36%
( 9%) LWWWLL: 17.35 (14.00-19.85) 100% in, 83% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Galion (2-2) 12%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 17.35 (13.80-19.75) 100% in, 81% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Galion (2-2) 14%
( 1%) LWLLLL: 12.55 (10.10-14.85) 72% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Port Clinton (4-0) 12%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 147.4, #66, D5 #5), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 56% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 144.5, #71, D5 #5), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 148.3, #59, D5 #5), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 7-3), 53% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 150.6, #52, D5 #5), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 77% home (maybe if 7-3), 51% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 148.0, #63, D5 #4), 75% (bubble if 6-4), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 143.1