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Rankings
#4 of 107 in Division 6
#1 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #2 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #8 in D6 (+320 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 49-48 A #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 143
08/29 L 14-7 H #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 8 (66%), perf. rating 115
09/05 W 28-14 H #327 Fort Recovery (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 124
09/12 L 14-7 A #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 118
09/19 H #206 Minster (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 13 (79%)
09/26 A #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/03 H #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/10 A #139 New Bremen (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 H #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 A #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
13.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 86% home (maybe if 4-6), 34% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.00 ( 7.80-21.30) 100% in, 93% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#12), bye 41%
Lose: 8.93 ( 5.60-18.30) 99% in, 59% home, 6% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Anna (3-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 19.70 (17.70-21.30) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(24%) 7W: 15.95 (14.00-18.70) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
(33%) 6W: 13.00 (10.65-16.20) 100% in, 99% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 28%
(29%) 5W: 10.10 ( 7.95-14.00) 100% in, 80% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Anna (3-1) 17%
(12%) 4W: 8.25 ( 6.20-12.40) 99% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Anna (3-1) 19%
( 1%) 3W: 7.50 ( 5.60- 9.35) 93% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 19.70 (17.70-21.30) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(23%) WWWWWL: 15.90 (14.00-18.30) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
( 2%) LWWWWL: 13.50 (11.50-14.95) 100% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 37%
(11%) WWWWLL: 13.15 (11.05-14.70) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 30%
(18%) WWWLWL: 12.85 (10.65-14.80) 100% in, 99% home, 24% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 24%
( 4%) LWWLWL: 10.75 ( 8.85-12.30) 100% in, 85% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Anna (3-1) 17%
(21%) WWWLLL: 10.10 ( 7.95-12.00) 100% in, 77% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Anna (3-1) 17%
(10%) LWWLLL: 8.25 ( 6.20- 9.50) 99% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Anna (3-1) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 131.9, #150, D6 #4), likely in, 86% home (maybe if 4-6), 34% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 137.7, #113, D6 #3), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 4-6), 75% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 148.3, #63, D6 #2), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 77% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 154.1, #47, D6 #1), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 4-6), 84% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 162.8, #26, D6 #1), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 83% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Last season 164.7