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Region 28 playoff probabilities
Region 28 seeding probabilities
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Rankings
#3 of 104 in Division 7
#2 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #4 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #93 in D7 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #473 Wayne Trace (0-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 35 (95%)
08/28 H #479 Covington (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (96%)
09/04 H #163 Minster (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 3 (56%)
09/11 A #63 Coldwater (0-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 21 (11%)
09/18 H #405 St Johns (0-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 A #174 Versailles (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/02 A #69 St Henry (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/09 H #32 Marion Local (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/16 A #238 Fort Recovery (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/23 H #537 Parkway (0-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 40 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
83% (bubble if 4-6), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 25% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.65 ( 0.35-26.15) 85% in, 61% home, 26% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 30%
Lose: 5.40 ( 0.00-20.15) 41% in, 20% home, 5% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 21.50 (16.65-26.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) 9W: 18.15 (13.30-24.00) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 96%
(13%) 8W: 15.10 (10.05-21.25) 100% in, 99% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 66%
(18%) 7W: 12.50 ( 7.55-18.65) 99% in, 94% home, 25% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 25%
(20%) 6W: 10.15 ( 4.85-17.50) 98% in, 65% home, 5% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Manchester (0-0) 7%
(18%) 5W: 8.05 ( 3.45-14.05) 82% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Fort Recovery (0-0) 8%
(12%) 4W: 6.25 ( 2.55-11.00) 47% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Minster (0-0) 8%
( 6%) 3W: 4.65 ( 1.45- 9.15) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Minster (0-0) 13%
( 2%) 2W: 2.95 ( 0.75- 7.65) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 1%) 1W: 1.40 ( 0.35- 4.35) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Fort Recovery (0-0) 5%
Minster (0-0) 5%
Manchester (0-0) 5%
Ridgemont (0-0) 5%
Most likely second round opponents
Marion Local (0-0) 17%
Ansonia (0-0) 13%
Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) 13%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 10%
Minster (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 58.0, #612, D7 #62), 45% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 130.5