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Rankings
#3 of 107 in Division 7
#3 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #9 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #6 in D7 (+512 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 41-0 A #519 Wayne Trace (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 140
08/29 W 49-0 A #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 43 (98%), perf. rating 143
09/05 W 56-14 H #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 42 (99%), perf. rating 134
09/12 W 26-25 A #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 8 (32%), perf. rating 136
09/19 H #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 28 (4%)
09/26 A #327 Fort Recovery (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/03 A #206 Minster (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/10 H #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/17 A #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/24 H #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
13.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.83 (11.90-22.60) 100% in, 99% home, 73% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 73%
Lose: 12.70 ( 4.50-19.50) 98% in, 69% home, 18% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 10W: 20.80 (18.45-22.60) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(17%) 9W: 17.05 (14.65-20.00) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 84%
(33%) 8W: 13.95 (11.50-17.45) 100% in, 97% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 17%
(31%) 7W: 11.25 ( 8.65-15.90) 100% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Notre Dame (4-0) 19%
(14%) 6W: 9.15 ( 6.55-13.65) 97% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 15%
( 3%) 5W: 7.40 ( 4.85-10.25) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Ansonia (3-1) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 20.80 (18.45-22.60) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(15%) LWWWWW: 17.05 (14.65-19.50) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 84%
( 4%) LWWLWW: 14.35 (12.35-16.75) 100% in, 99% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 27%
(25%) LWWWLW: 13.65 (11.50-16.10) 100% in, 96% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 18%
( 8%) LWLWLW: 11.45 ( 8.90-14.05) 100% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-#12), Minster (3-1) 18%
(19%) LWWLLW: 11.05 ( 8.65-13.65) 100% in, 57% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Notre Dame (4-0) 22%
(10%) LWLLLW: 9.00 ( 6.55-11.70) 97% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 16%
( 2%) LLLLLW: 7.20 ( 4.85- 9.25) 59% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Ansonia (3-1) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 133.4, #139, D7 #3), likely in, 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 129.3, #166, D7 #3), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 131.0, #150, D7 #3), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 131.3, #142, D7 #5), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 123.0, #192, D7 #5), 64% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 124.2