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Rankings
#14 of 107 in Division 7
#6 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #11 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D7 (+158 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 44-0 H #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 39 (96%), perf. rating 110
08/29 W 23-16 A #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 8 (66%), perf. rating 98
09/05 L 28-14 A #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 113
09/12 L 33-13 H #90 St Henry (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 29 (4%), perf. rating 111
09/20 A #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/26 H #139 New Bremen (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/03 H #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/10 A #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/17 A #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/24 H #206 Minster (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 14 (18%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
3.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
9% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.10 ( 2.00-15.35) 13% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
Lose: 2.85 ( 1.30-12.85) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 10.45 ( 9.30-13.15) 100% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#5-#11), Eastern (Beaver) (4-0) 16%
( 6%) 6W: 7.80 ( 6.20-12.85) 80% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Ansonia (3-1) 18%
(20%) 5W: 5.50 ( 3.90- 9.90) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 20%
(43%) 4W: 3.60 ( 2.40- 7.75) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(28%) 3W: 2.80 ( 1.70- 6.00) out, proj. out
( 3%) 2W: 2.35 ( 1.30- 4.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWLW: 7.95 ( 6.65-10.95) 86% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Ansonia (3-1) 20%
( 4%) WLLWWW: 7.50 ( 6.20-11.05) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Ansonia (3-1) 19%
( 4%) WLLWWL: 5.85 ( 4.70- 8.30) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out), Ansonia (3-1) 19%
(13%) WLLWLW: 5.10 ( 3.90- 8.30) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 21%
( 4%) LLLWLW: 4.30 ( 3.20- 6.85) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Ansonia (3-1) 42%
(36%) WLLWLL: 3.55 ( 2.40- 5.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Eastern (Beaver) (4-0) 100%
(25%) LLLWLL: 2.70 ( 1.70- 5.70) out
( 3%) LLLLLL: 2.35 ( 1.30- 4.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 105.4, #327, D7 #14), 9% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 105.8, #330, D7 #15), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 102.3, #343, D7 #19), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 103.9, #332, D7 #19), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 102.3, #336, D7 #19), 19% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 101.0