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Rankings
#10 of 103 in Division 7
#5 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #4 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D7 (+93 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-14 A #606 Ponitz Tech (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 44 (98%), perf. rating 91
08/28 L 28-21 H #222 Allen East (4-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 107
09/04 L 35-9 H #76 Coldwater (6-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 35 (3%), perf. rating 103
09/11 W 37-20 A #460 St Johns (1-6) D7 R26, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 113
09/18 L 28-21 H #149 Versailles (4-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 16 (16%), perf. rating 117
09/25 L 29-28 A #223 Anna (4-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 8 (31%), perf. rating 120
10/02 L 33-0 A #35 Marion Local (7-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 37 (1%), perf. rating 113
10/09 H #422 Parkway (2-5) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/16 H #136 New Bremen (3-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/23 A #122 Minster (6-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 24 (6%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.02 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
48% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.02 ( 3.02- 9.12) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (6-1) 31%
Lose: 1.81 ( 1.81- 6.85) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 7.56 ( 7.56- 9.12) 100% in, 65% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Cincinnati Country Day (3-4) 29%
(15%) 4W: 5.29 ( 4.83- 7.76) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), New Bremen (3-4) 29%
(77%) 3W: 3.02 ( 3.02- 5.39) 41% in, proj. out (#10-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (6-1) 45%
( 7%) 2W: 1.81 ( 1.81- 3.48) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWW: 7.56 ( 7.56- 9.12) 100% in, 65% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Cincinnati Country Day (3-4) 29%
( 5%) WLW: 5.69 ( 5.69- 7.76) 100% in, 3% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), New Bremen (3-4) 30%
(10%) WWL: 4.88 ( 4.83- 6.40) 98% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), New Bremen (3-4) 29%
(76%) WLL: 3.02 ( 3.02- 5.09) 41% in, proj. out (#10-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (6-1) 45%
( 7%) LLL: 1.81 ( 1.81- 3.48) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Waynesfield-Goshen (5-2) 42%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 112.1, #275, D7 #10), 48% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 6 (2-4, 112.0, #278, D7 #11), 43% (bubble if 3-7), 4% home (likely needs 5-5), proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 5 (2-3, 110.7, #287, D7 #12), 57% (bubble if 3-7), 11% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (2-2, 111.7, #285, D7 #10), 64% (bubble if 3-7), 21% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 106.0, #325, D7 #13), 31% (bubble if 3-7), 8% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 99.4, #367, D7 #17), 21% (bubble if 3-7), 5% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (1-0, 106.8, #312, D7 #13), 54% (bubble if 3-7), 24% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 115.7, #238, D7 #8), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 121.2